Kumar Vijay, Jena Diptismita, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Roopashree R, Kaur Mandeep, Srivastava Manish, Barwal Amit, Prasad G V Siva, Rajput Pranchal, Syed Rukshar, Sharma Gajendra, Kumar Sunil, Chilakam Nagavalli, Bushi Ganesh, Sathik Hassan Basri Jahubar, Mehta Rachana, Sah Sanjit, Shabil Muhammed, Gaidhane Abhay M, Serhan Hashem Abu
Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India.
Center for Global Health Research, Saveetha Medical College and Hospital, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, Chennai, India.
Int J Urol. 2025 Mar;32(3):277-284. doi: 10.1111/iju.15641. Epub 2024 Dec 13.
The objectives of this study were to analyze trends in prostate cancer incidence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 via data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in South Asia. Additionally, the study projects future prostate cancer incidence rates up to 2031 to inform public health interventions in South Asia.
Data covering South Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan were obtained from the GBD 2021 portal. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) for prostate cancer metrics, including incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and DALYs (ASDR), were analyzed via joinpoint and ARIMA modeling techniques. Geographic variations in ASRs were mapped via QGIS software.
The prostate cancer ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR significantly increased from 1990 to 2021, particularly among individuals aged 60-65 years. The highest incidence and mortality rates were observed in Pakistan. The total percentage change in incidence in India was the highest at 61%. Projections indicate a continued rise in prostate cancer incidence, with South Asia's ASIR expected to reach 9.34 per 100 000 by 2031.
The growing burden of prostate cancer in South Asia highlights the need for enhanced screening programs, public awareness, and healthcare infrastructure improvements. Without intervention, the increasing incidence and mortality rates could strain healthcare resources, emphasizing the urgency of region-specific public health strategies.
本研究的目的是通过南亚全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，分析1990年至2021年前列腺癌发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）的趋势。此外，该研究预测了到2031年的未来前列腺癌发病率，以为南亚的公共卫生干预提供信息。
从GBD 2021门户网站获取了涵盖孟加拉国、不丹、印度、尼泊尔和巴基斯坦等南亚国家的数据。通过连接点和自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）建模技术，分析了前列腺癌指标的年龄标准化率（ASR），包括发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、死亡率（ASMR）和DALY（ASDR）。通过QGIS软件绘制了ASR的地理变异图。
1990年至2021年，前列腺癌的ASIR、ASPR和ASDR显著增加，尤其是在60 - 65岁的人群中。巴基斯坦的发病率和死亡率最高。印度发病率的总百分比变化最高，为61%。预测表明前列腺癌发病率将持续上升，预计到2031年南亚的ASIR将达到每10万人9.34例。
南亚前列腺癌负担的增加凸显了加强筛查项目、提高公众意识和改善医疗保健基础设施的必要性。如果不进行干预，发病率和死亡率的上升可能会给医疗资源带来压力，强调了制定针对该地区的公共卫生战略的紧迫性。
