Predicting gene expression from histone marks using chromatin deep learning models depends on histone mark function, regulatory distance and cellular states.

To understand the complex relationship between histone mark activity and gene expression, recent advances have used in silico predictions based on large-scale machine learning models. However, these approaches have omitted key contributing factors like cell state, histone mark function or distal effects, which impact the relationship, limiting their findings. Moreover, downstream use of these models for new biological insight is lacking. Here, we present the most comprehensive study of this relationship to date - investigating seven histone marks in eleven cell types across a diverse range of cell states. We used convolutional and attention-based models to predict transcription from histone mark activity at promoters and distal regulatory elements. Our work shows that histone mark function, genomic distance and cellular states collectively influence a histone mark's relationship with transcription. We found that no individual histone mark is consistently the strongest predictor of gene expression across all genomic and cellular contexts. This highlights the need to consider all three factors when determining the effect of histone mark activity on transcriptional state. Furthermore, we conducted in silico histone mark perturbation assays, uncovering functional and disease related loci and highlighting frameworks for the use of chromatin deep learning models to uncover new biological insight.