Akinnubi R T, Adegbo K J, Ojo M O, Ajakaiye M P, Sabejeje A J, Aramide J O, Akinnubi T D
Department of Physics Adeyemi Federal University of Education Ondo Nigeria.
Department of Physics Ariel University Samaria Israel.
Geohealth. 2024 Dec 12;8(12):e2024GH001069. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001069. eCollection 2024 Dec.
This study investigates the impact of surface temperature anomalies on the health of residents within the River Niger Basin Development Authority (RIBDA) enclave, which covers Nigeria, Niger, and Mali in West Africa, with a focus on the regional implications for public health. Historical climate data from 1985 to 2014, sourced from the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series, Version 3.22 (CRU TS 3.22), was analyzed to comprehend past climate patterns and establish a baseline for future comparisons. Predictions for future climate conditions (2015-2044) were derived by adjusting the CRU data using temperature projections from the Community Climate System Model 4 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. To assess the potential impacts of these climate changes, particularly during the boreal summer season of July-August-September (JAS), the study utilized the Hydrology, Entomology, and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS). Findings indicate that surface temperature can intricately influence disease transmission, with varied effects on parameters such as Ro, EIR, prevalence, and immunity index. Observations revealed fluctuations in temperature anomalies over the years, with negative anomalies in 1991-1995 and positive anomalies in subsequent years. Although precise predictions for 2016-2044 are challenging based solely on data trends from 1985 to 2015, continued temperature rises could potentially lead to increased disease prevalence and decreased immunity index. Moreover, the analysis identified a notable temporal increase in mean annual temperature and mean annual maximum temperature from 1999 to 2020, suggesting a faster warming trend in maximum temperatures compared to minimum temperatures. This increase in temperature variability may alter the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season, affecting water availability, accessibility, and consumption, consequently fostering conditions conducive to health-related diseases. By incorporating predicted long-term temperature changes due to greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining current inter-annual climate patterns, this approach allows researchers to anticipate potential future health implications in the studied regions.
本研究调查了地表温度异常对尼日尔河流域开发管理局（RIBDA）飞地内居民健康的影响，该飞地覆盖西非的尼日利亚、尼日尔和马里，重点关注对公共卫生的区域影响。分析了1985年至2014年来自气候研究单位时间序列第3.22版（CRU TS 3.22）的历史气候数据，以了解过去的气候模式并为未来比较建立基线。通过使用代表性浓度路径8.5情景下社区气候系统模型4的温度预测来调整CRU数据，得出未来气候条件（2015 - 2044年）预测。为评估这些气候变化的潜在影响，特别是在7 - 8 - 9月的北半球夏季（JAS）期间，该研究使用了水文、昆虫学和疟疾传播模拟器（HYDREMATS）。研究结果表明，地表温度可复杂地影响疾病传播，对诸如基本再生数（Ro）、昆虫感染率（EIR）、患病率和免疫指数等参数有不同影响。观测结果显示多年来温度异常存在波动，1991 - 1995年为负异常，随后几年为正异常。尽管仅根据1985年至2015年的数据趋势对2016 - 2044年进行精确预测具有挑战性，但持续的温度上升可能会导致疾病患病率增加和免疫指数下降。此外，分析确定1999年至2020年年平均温度和年平均最高温度有显著的时间上升，表明最高温度的变暖趋势比最低温度更快。温度变率的这种增加可能会改变雨季的开始和结束日期，影响水的可获得性、可及性和消费量，从而营造有利于与健康相关疾病的条件。通过纳入由于温室气体排放导致的预测长期温度变化，同时保持当前的年际气候模式，这种方法使研究人员能够预测研究区域未来潜在的健康影响。
