Caldwell Jamie M, Lambrechts Louis, Rose Noah H
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, Insect-Virus Interactions Unit, Paris, France.
Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Dec;8(12):e1020-e1029. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00276-6.
Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have raised major global health concerns recently, yet reported outbreaks are rare in Africa, where ZIKV was first discovered. Recent studies on Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits ZIKV, might explain this phenomenon. The Ae aegypti subspecies present in Africa shows lower preference for biting humans and reduced susceptibility to ZIKV infection compared with the subspecies distributed outside Africa. Alternatively, climate might strongly limit transmission as it affects multiple traits of ZIKV and the mosquito vector.
We used a modelling approach informed by empirical data to assess ZIKV transmission risk across Africa. We fitted the model using data from laboratory experiments, and validated the model by comparing predicted transmission suitability with seroprevalence surveys conducted across Africa. Additionally, we used mosquito genetic and climate-based projections to map future ZIKV outbreak risk at 59 urban centres in Africa.
The model predictions partially and significantly explain historical patterns of ZIKV circulation in Africa (accounting for 46% of the variation in seroprevalence surveys). Mosquito population genetics influence transmission more strongly than climate through two mechanisms: vector-host contact and vector competence. If climate and mosquito genetic population projections are accurate and there are no other changes to drivers of Zika virus transmission in Africa, we predict that approximately three-quarters of the most populous African cities will be suitable for ZIKV outbreaks by the end of the century.
Both population-level genomic variation in mosquitoes and climate contribute to the lack of ZIKV outbreaks in Africa. Given the importance of mosquito genetics in driving this pattern, local genomic surveillance of mosquito populations would help predict outbreaks in vulnerable communities. This will become increasingly important with population growth, urbanisation, and climate change.
Princeton University, French Government's Investissement d'Avenir and France 2030 programmes, MSDAVENIR, and US National Institutes of Health.
寨卡病毒（ZIKV）疫情最近引发了全球重大健康担忧，但在寨卡病毒最初发现的非洲，报告的疫情却很罕见。最近对传播寨卡病毒的埃及伊蚊的研究或许可以解释这一现象。与分布在非洲以外的亚种相比，非洲的埃及伊蚊亚种对叮咬人类的偏好较低，且对寨卡病毒感染的易感性降低。另外，气候可能会强烈限制传播，因为它会影响寨卡病毒和蚊媒的多种特性。
我们采用基于实证数据的建模方法来评估非洲各地寨卡病毒的传播风险。我们利用实验室实验数据对模型进行拟合，并通过将预测的传播适宜性与在非洲各地进行的血清流行率调查结果进行比较来验证模型。此外，我们利用蚊子的基因和基于气候的预测来绘制非洲59个城市中心未来寨卡病毒疫情爆发风险图。
模型预测部分且显著地解释了非洲寨卡病毒传播的历史模式（占血清流行率调查变异的46%）。蚊子种群遗传学通过两种机制比气候对传播的影响更强：媒介与宿主的接触以及媒介能力。如果气候和蚊子基因种群预测准确，且非洲寨卡病毒传播的驱动因素没有其他变化，我们预测到本世纪末，非洲人口最多的城市中约四分之三将适合寨卡病毒爆发。
蚊子的种群水平基因组变异和气候都导致了非洲寨卡病毒疫情的缺乏。鉴于蚊子遗传学在推动这一模式中的重要性，对蚊子种群进行本地基因组监测将有助于预测脆弱社区的疫情爆发。随着人口增长、城市化和气候变化，这将变得越来越重要。
普林斯顿大学、法国政府的“未来投资计划”和“法国2030计划”、MSDAVENIR以及美国国立卫生研究院。
