Peña-García Víctor Hugo, Ndenga Bryson A, Mutuku Francis M, Bisanzio Donal, LaBeaud A Desiree, Mordecai Erin A
Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya.
medRxiv. 2024 Dec 5:2024.05.28.24308061. doi: 10.1101/2024.05.28.24308061.
Households (HH) have been traditionally described as the main environments where people are at risk of dengue (and other arbovirus) infection. Mounting entomological evidence has suggested a larger role of environments other than HH in transmission. Recently, an agent-based model (ABM) estimated that over half of infections occur in non-household (NH) environments like workplaces, markets, and recreational sites. However, the importance of human and vector mobility and the configurations of urban spaces in mediating the effects of NH on dengue transmission remains understudied.
To improve our knowledge of the relevance of NH in transmission, we expanded an ABM calibrated from field data in Kenya to examine movement of people and vectors under different spatial configurations of buildings. In this model, we assessed the number of people traveling between HH and NH and their distance. Those were studied on three different urban configurations, on which the NH are spatially distributed either randomly (scattered), centered (in a single center), or clustered (in more than one cluster).
Across simulations, the number of people moving is a major influential variable where higher levels of movement between HH and NH increases the number of cases. In addition, the number of cases is higher when NH are scattered. Intriguingly, the distance that people travel from HH to NH seems to have little effect on dengue burden; however, it affects the level of spatial clustering of cases.
These results highlight the importance of NH as a major spreader of infections between HH and NH environments supporting the relevance of NH in transmission and its interaction with human movement in driving dengue dynamics.
家庭传统上被认为是人们面临登革热（及其他虫媒病毒）感染风险的主要环境。越来越多的昆虫学证据表明，家庭以外的环境在传播中发挥着更大作用。最近，一个基于主体的模型估计，超过一半的感染发生在非家庭环境中，如工作场所、市场和娱乐场所。然而，人类和病媒的流动性以及城市空间配置在介导非家庭环境对登革热传播的影响方面的重要性仍未得到充分研究。
为了增进我们对非家庭环境在传播中的相关性的了解，我们扩展了一个根据肯尼亚实地数据校准的基于主体的模型，以研究不同建筑空间配置下人和病媒的移动情况。在这个模型中，我们评估了在家庭和非家庭环境之间流动的人数及其距离。这些情况在三种不同的城市配置上进行了研究，在这些配置中，非家庭环境在空间上要么随机分布（分散）、集中在一个中心，要么聚集在多个集群中。
在所有模拟中，流动人数是一个主要影响变量，家庭和非家庭环境之间的流动水平越高，病例数就越多。此外，当非家庭环境分散时，病例数更高。有趣的是，人们从家庭到非家庭环境的出行距离似乎对登革热负担影响不大；然而，它会影响病例的空间聚集程度。
这些结果突出了非家庭环境作为家庭和非家庭环境之间感染主要传播源的重要性，支持了非家庭环境在传播中的相关性及其与人类流动在驱动登革热动态方面的相互作用。
