Sun Xiaowu, Di Fusco Manuela, Lupton Laura L, Yehoshua Alon, Alvarez Mary B, Allen Kristen E, Puzniak Laura, Lopez Santiago M C, Cappelleri Joseph C
CVS Health, Woonsocket, RI 02895, USA.
Pfizer Inc., New York, NY 10001, USA.
Healthcare (Basel). 2024 Nov 21;12(23):2321. doi: 10.3390/healthcare12232321.
Long COVID remains a significant public health concern. This study investigated risk factors for long COVID in outpatient settings.
A US-based prospective survey study (clinicaltrials.gov NCT05160636) was conducted in 2022 and replicated in 2023. Symptomatic adults testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at CVS Pharmacies were recruited. CDC-based long COVID symptoms were collected at Week 4, Month 3, and Month 6 following SARS-CoV-2 testing. Logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model for long COVID using data from the 2022 cohort. The model was validated with data from the 2023 cohort. Model performance was evaluated with c-statistics.
Patients characteristics were generally similar between the 2022 (N = 328) and 2023 (N = 505) cohorts. The prevalence of long COVID defined as ≥3 symptoms at Month 6 was 35.0% and 18.2%, respectively. The risk factors associated with long COVID were older age, female sex, lack of up-to-date vaccination, number of acute symptoms on the day of SARS-CoV-2 testing, increase in symptoms at Week 1, underlying comorbidities and asthma/chronic lung disease. The c-statistic was 0.79, denoting good predictive power.
A predictive model for long COVID was developed for an outpatient setting. This research could help differentiate at-risk groups and target interventions.
新冠长期症状仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题。本研究调查了门诊环境中新冠长期症状的风险因素。
2022年开展了一项基于美国的前瞻性调查研究（clinicaltrials.gov NCT05160636），并于2023年进行了重复研究。招募了在CVS药房SARS-CoV-2检测呈阳性的有症状成年人。在SARS-CoV-2检测后的第4周、第3个月和第6个月收集基于美国疾病控制与预防中心标准的新冠长期症状。使用来自2022年队列的数据，通过逻辑回归建立了新冠长期症状的预测模型。该模型用2023年队列的数据进行了验证。用c统计量评估模型性能。
2022年队列（N = 328）和2023年队列（N = 505）的患者特征总体相似。在第6个月时，定义为出现≥3种症状的新冠长期症状患病率分别为35.0%和18.2%。与新冠长期症状相关的风险因素包括年龄较大、女性、未接种最新疫苗、SARS-CoV-2检测当天的急性症状数量、第1周症状加重、基础合并症以及哮喘/慢性肺病。c统计量为0.79，表明具有良好的预测能力。
针对门诊环境建立了新冠长期症状的预测模型。这项研究有助于区分高危人群并针对性地进行干预。
