Adanu Emmanuel Kofi, Agyemang William, Lidbe Abhay, Adarkwa Offei, Jones Steven
Alabama Transportation Institute, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA.
Building and Road Research Institute, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Fumesua, Ghana.
Heliyon. 2023 Aug 4;9(8):e18937. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18937. eCollection 2023 Aug.
Head-on collisions are often linked to more serious injuries compared to other types of crashes, due to the intense impact they cause. In low- and middle-income countries, these collisions frequently involve high occupancy public transportation vehicles, leading to higher fatality rates per crash. Given the high risk of injury and potential for multiple casualties, this study delves into the factors influencing the outcomes of head-on crashes and the number of fatalities in Ghana. The study analyzed six years of historical head-on collision data from Ghana and developed two models to address the issue. The injury-severity analysis was performed using a random parameter multinomial logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach and aimed to identify the factors that have a significant impact on the severity of injuries sustained in head-on collisions, while the random parameters negative binomial fatality count model was designed to examine the factors that contribute to the number of fatalities in these crashes in the country. Results showed that head-on collisions with drivers over 65, buses, motorcycles, and those between 25 and 65 years of age were more likely to result in fatalities. Speeding and vehicle malfunctions were also found to be significant contributing factors to fatal head-on collisions. Head-on crashes involving minibuses and incidents where the driver was attempting to overtake another vehicle were found to be more likely to result in a higher number of fatalities. The results of this study uncover an intriguing interaction between human-related elements and socioeconomic factors, which pose obstacles to the Government's endeavor to upgrade the major highways in the country. Additionally, the increasing need for transportation has led to the presence of vehicles on the roads that may not meet safety standards. Consequently, it is no surprise that several of the study's findings align with expectations. Nevertheless, within the specific context of Ghana, these findings furnish compelling data-driven evidence supporting the adoption and implementation of the safe systems approach as a means to tackle fatal head-on collisions in the country.
与其他类型的撞车事故相比，正面碰撞往往会导致更严重的伤害，因为它们造成的冲击力很强。在低收入和中等收入国家，这些碰撞事故经常涉及高载客量的公共交通工具，导致每次撞车事故的死亡率更高。鉴于受伤风险高且可能造成多人伤亡，本研究深入探讨了影响加纳正面撞车事故结果和死亡人数的因素。该研究分析了加纳六年的正面碰撞历史数据，并开发了两个模型来解决这一问题。伤害严重程度分析采用了均值和方差具有异质性的随机参数多项logit模型，旨在确定对正面碰撞中受伤严重程度有重大影响的因素，而随机参数负二项式死亡人数模型则旨在研究导致该国这些撞车事故中死亡人数的因素。结果表明，与65岁以上的司机、公交车、摩托车以及25至65岁之间的人发生正面碰撞更有可能导致死亡。超速和车辆故障也被发现是致命正面碰撞的重要促成因素。涉及小型巴士的正面撞车事故以及司机试图超车的事故被发现更有可能导致更多人死亡。本研究的结果揭示了人为因素与社会经济因素之间一种有趣的相互作用，这对政府升级该国主要公路的努力构成了障碍。此外，对交通的需求不断增加导致道路上出现了一些可能不符合安全标准的车辆。因此，该研究的一些发现与预期相符也就不足为奇了。然而，在加纳的特定背景下，这些发现提供了有力的数据驱动证据，支持采用和实施安全系统方法来解决该国致命的正面碰撞问题。
