Global burden of low vision and blindness due to age-related macular degeneration from 1990 to 2021 and projections for 2050.

BACKGROUND

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness and low vision worldwide. This study examines the global burden and trends in AMD-related low vision and blindness from 1990 to 2021, with projections through 2050.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) study, covering 204 countries and regions. Key metrics, including the prevalent case numbers, annual disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDALYR), specific to low vision and blindness due to AMD, were calculated per 100,000 population. Trend analysis used the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) method, and K-means clustering identified regions with similar burdens and trends. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing(ES) models provided future projections.

RESULTS

Globally, the total number of prevalent cases and DALYs has substantially increased. The number of prevalent cases of low vision and blindness due to AMD increased from 3,640,180 (95% UI: 3,037,098 - 4,353,902) in 1990 to 8,057,521 (95% UI: 6,705,284-9,823,238) in 2021. DALYs increased from 302,902 (95% UI: 206,475 - 421,952) in 1990 to 578,020 (95% UI: 401,241-797,570) in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, both the ASPR and ASDALYR for AMD-related low vision and blindness showed a downward trend. The ASPR was 94 (95% UI: 78.32-114.42) per 100,000 population, with an EAPC of -0.26 (95% CI: -0.31 to -0.22), and the ASDALYR was 6.78 (95% UI: 4.7-9.32) per 100,000 population, with an EAPC of -0.94 (95% CI: -1.01 to -0.88). The disease burden of AMD-related low vision and blindness increases with age, and the burden for female patients is slightly higher than for males. Regional stratification by the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) shows that the burden of AMD-related low vision and blindness in areas with low SDI is higher than in areas with high SDI. From 1990 to 2021, notable increases in ASPR and ASDALYR were observed mainly in the southern and central regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, the increases in prevalence and DALYs vary by region, country, and level of socioeconomic development. The ARIMA model predicts that by 2050, the number of prevalent cases of low vision and blindness due to AMD will reach 13,880,610(95% CI: 9,805,575-17,955,645), and the DALYs will be 764,731(95% CI: 683,535-845,926). The ES model predicts that by 2050, the number of prevalent cases of AMD-related low vision and blindness will reach 9,323,124(95% CI: 5,222,474-13,423,774), and the DALYs will be 641,451 (95% CI: 383,588-899,318).

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that between 1990 and 2021, the global prevalent cases and DALYs caused by AMD-related low vision and blindness have increased over the past three decades, correlating with factors such as age, gender, socioeconomic status, and geographical location. Predictive models indicate that as the population ages, the number of patients with low vision and blindness due to AMD, along with associated DALYs, will continue to rise. By 2050, it is expected that over 9 million people worldwide will be affected by AMD-related vision loss, with women being particularly impacted. These findings can provide data support for public health planning, resource allocation, and the formulation of medical policies, ensuring an effective response to the challenges posed by the future increase in AMD-related low vision and blindness.