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无牙老年人群的疾病负担与健康不平等及到2040年的预测趋势:基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》

Disease burden and health inequality of older adults with edentulism and the projected trend until 2040: based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

作者信息

Guan Weizhen, Li Jing, Liang Qian, Huang Yushan, Li Shunhang, Xu Xiaoshuang, Zhang Yilin, Wang Fei, Xu Xin

机构信息

School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, No. 7166 Baotong West Street, Weifang, Shandong Province, PR China.

School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong Province, PR China.

出版信息

Clin Oral Investig. 2024 Dec 19;29(1):22. doi: 10.1007/s00784-024-06111-5.

DOI:10.1007/s00784-024-06111-5
PMID:39699767
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To comprehensively analyze the current situation and the trends over the next 21 years, focusing on health inequalities related to edentulism among the elderly across global regions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data on edentulism in older adults were collected from the 2021 global burden of disease (GBD) study. Disease burden trends were analyzed using a joinpoint model. We used the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the Concentration Index (CI) to assess health inequalities. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to analyze the projected trend of prevalence up to 2040.

RESULTS

The number of incident, prevalent, and years lived with disability (YLD) cases of edentulism in older adults is increasing globally, while the rate is declining. According to the analysis of health inequality, the burden of edentulism among older adults was gradually concentrated in countries with lower Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Significant downward trends were expected in the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of edentulism for both genders from 2020 to 2040; however, the number is increasing.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, the burden of edentulism in older people remains high and generally shifts from higher-SDI countries to lower-SDI countries. There are great differences between countries, and effective measures should be taken in countries with poorer economies.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

The disease burden of edentulism in older adults is gradually shifting towards lower SDI countries. It is crucial to optimize the utilization and allocation of healthcare resources to reduce health inequities in edentulism in older adults.

摘要

目的

全面分析当前状况以及未来21年的趋势,重点关注全球各地区老年人无牙颌相关的健康不平等问题。

材料与方法

从2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究中收集老年人无牙颌的数据。使用连接点模型分析疾病负担趋势。我们用不平等斜率指数(SII)和集中指数(CI)评估健康不平等。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型分析到2040年患病率的预测趋势。

结果

全球老年人无牙颌的发病、患病和残疾生存年数(YLD)病例数在增加,而发病率在下降。根据健康不平等分析,老年人无牙颌负担逐渐集中在社会人口指数(SDI)较低的国家。预计2020年至2040年全球无牙颌年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)在两性中均呈显著下降趋势;然而,病例数在增加。

结论

总体而言,老年人无牙颌负担仍然很高,且一般从高SDI国家向低SDI国家转移。国家之间存在很大差异,经济较差的国家应采取有效措施。

临床意义

老年人无牙颌的疾病负担正逐渐向低SDI国家转移。优化医疗资源的利用和分配以减少老年人无牙颌的健康不平等至关重要。

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