Association between simple, combined lipid markers and 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes: the ATTICA cohort study (2002-2022).

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between simple, combined lipid biomarkers, and 20-year cumulative incidence of new type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among adults participating in the ATTICA cohort study (2002-2022).

METHODS

The present analysis included data from 2000 individuals free of T2DM at baseline (age 43 ± 13 years; 51% women). Sociodemographic, anthropometric, lifestyle, clinical, and biochemical parameters were collected at baseline and follow-up examinations; combined lipid markers were evaluated.

RESULTS

The 20-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 26.3% (95%CI 24.4, 28.3%). All, simple and combined lipid markers were independently associated with new T2DM onset. The accuracy of simple and combined markers was approximately 75%, without any significant differences between simple and combined indices. The additive correct classification gain of lipid markers to glucose metabolism indices on 20-year new T2DM cumulative incidence varied between 0.9% for cardiometabolic index to 10.6% for LDL-cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipid profile is associated with the long-term onset of T2DM. Evaluated through simple or combined markers, lipid profiles can be utilized for identifying and improving risk stratification in individuals at high risk for T2DM, while also enhancing the effectiveness of primary prevention measures and public health strategies.