Wang Yang, Zhang Yichen, Zhang Jiquan, Li Mingda, Ma Ming, Li Jinying
College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun, 130012, China.
School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):30898. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81765-5.
In the context of rapid urbanization, the proliferation of high-density residential zones and intricate infrastructure networks markedly amplifies a city's susceptibility to natural calamities, notably seismic events. Thus, a precise evaluation of a city's emergency capability for seismic events is imperative. This research proposes a novel and all-encompassing evaluation framework for indicators, grounded in crisis management theory, covering the entire spectrum of disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The framework comprises four primary dimensions and 15 auxiliary indicators, synergistically integrating quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Employing the coefficient of Coefficient of Variation Method and the Delphi Method, the study assigns weights to the indicators, while the 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic approach adeptly manages uncertain information. Utilizing Changchun City as an exemplar, the constructed and analyzed model highlights the city's strengths in emergency supply reserves and the formulation of emergency plans. However, the findings indicate a pressing need for enhancements in seismic preparedness, monitoring and early warning systems, urban economic resilience, and public education initiatives. This study not only furnishes a robust framework for evaluating disaster emergency capabilities specific to Changchun City but also imparts valuable insights applicable to seismic disaster management in other urban contexts. It substantially contributes to the theoretical and practical discourse on augmenting urban resilience in the face of natural disasters.
在快速城市化的背景下，高密度住宅区和复杂基础设施网络的扩散显著增加了城市对自然灾害，尤其是地震事件的脆弱性。因此，精确评估城市的地震应急能力势在必行。本研究基于危机管理理论，提出了一个新颖且全面的指标评估框架，涵盖减灾、备灾、应对和恢复的全过程。该框架由四个主要维度和15个辅助指标组成，协同整合了定量和定性方法。研究采用变异系数法和德尔菲法为指标赋权，同时运用二元模糊语言方法妥善处理不确定信息。以长春市为例，构建并分析的模型凸显了该市在应急物资储备和应急预案制定方面的优势。然而，研究结果表明，在地震防备、监测和预警系统、城市经济复原力以及公众教育举措方面迫切需要改进。本研究不仅为评估长春市特定的灾害应急能力提供了一个强大的框架，还为其他城市背景下的地震灾害管理提供了宝贵的见解。它对增强城市应对自然灾害的复原力的理论和实践论述做出了重大贡献。
