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一种基于模糊层次分析法(FBWM)和灰色关联分析法(GRA)的矿山爆破风险评估决策模型。

A decision-making model for blasting risk assessment in mines using FBWM and GRA methods.

作者信息

Soltani Edris, Ahmadi Omran, Rashnoudi Payam

机构信息

Department of Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, Abadan University of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):30997. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82181-5.

Abstract

Due to the extensive use of explosives, the failure to identify hazards and assess risks in blasting may lead to catastrophic consequences. However, classical risk assessment approaches are limited in their ability to address ambiguity and uncertainty, as well as in assigning weights to the criteria involved in the risk assessment process. This study employs a multi-criteria decision-making system to address these limitations and assess the risks associated with blasting. The proposed model integrates Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) to prioritize risks and the Fuzzy Best-Worst Method (FBWM) to assign weights to the criteria critical to the risk assessment process. The findings indicated that "not using personal anti-static protection devices during blasting (R12)", "placing the explosive fuse near explosive materials (R15)", and "bringing explosive materials to the explosion site before completing drilling and blasting operations (R23)" were the most significant blasting risks, respectively. These risks stem from operational processes, human factors, and the working environment, thus requiring special attention. The weighting of the study criteria, including Consequence (C), Probability (P), and Exposure (E), revealed that the C criterion, with a final weight of 0.538, was the most influential in the risk assessment process. The P and E criteria, with weights of 0.294 and 0.167, respectively, ranked second and third in importance among the assessment criteria. To ensure the applicability and accuracy of the proposed method, a validation study comprising two distinct parts-sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis-was conducted. The results of these evaluations highlighted the appropriate and reliable performance of the proposed approach. This approach can assist decision-makers, managers, and risk analysts in more accurately identifying and assessing risks by addressing some of the limitations inherent in classical risk assessment methods.

摘要

由于炸药的广泛使用,爆破过程中未能识别危险和评估风险可能会导致灾难性后果。然而,传统的风险评估方法在处理模糊性和不确定性以及为风险评估过程中涉及的标准分配权重方面能力有限。本研究采用多标准决策系统来解决这些局限性,并评估与爆破相关的风险。所提出的模型整合了灰色关联分析(GRA)以对风险进行优先级排序,以及模糊最佳 - 最差方法(FBWM)为对风险评估过程至关重要的标准分配权重。研究结果表明,“爆破时不使用个人防静电保护装置(R12)”、“将炸药导火索放置在爆炸材料附近(R15)”以及“在完成钻孔和爆破作业之前将爆炸材料运至爆炸现场(R23)”分别是最显著的爆破风险。这些风险源于操作流程、人为因素和工作环境,因此需要特别关注。对包括后果(C)、概率(P)和暴露(E)在内的研究标准进行加权后发现,最终权重为0.538的C标准在风险评估过程中最具影响力。P和E标准的权重分别为0.294和0.167,在评估标准中重要性排名第二和第三。为确保所提方法的适用性和准确性,进行了一项包括两个不同部分——敏感性分析和比较分析的验证研究。这些评估结果突出了所提方法适当且可靠的性能。这种方法可以通过解决传统风险评估方法固有的一些局限性,帮助决策者、管理人员和风险分析师更准确地识别和评估风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d47/11680990/2cbd1d052c8d/41598_2024_82181_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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