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中国黄河流域人口-资源-环境-经济(PREE)系统耦合协调度及驱动机制评估

Assessment of coupling coordinated degree and driving mechanism of population-resource-environment-economy (PREE) system in Yellow River Basin, China.

作者信息

Xiang Xin, Xiao Yi, Chen Yongxiang, Huang Huan

机构信息

College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, Sichuan, China.

Business School, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, Sichuan, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31135. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82419-2.

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in China have brought economic growth and improved living standards, while environmental degradation and resource overexploitation occurred simultaneously. Yellow River Basin (YRB) also faces priorities of ecological protection and high-quality development. Therefore, it is essential for YRB to coordinate the relationship between socioeconomic and eco-environment. This study constructed a population-resource-environment-economy (PREE) system to evaluate basin sustainable development from 2011 to 2021, along with the entropy-TOPSIS method, coupling coordination degree model (CCDM), spatial autocorrelation method, Kernel density estimation, and GeoDetector model, to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, spatial agglomeration characteristics, evolutionary trends, and driving mechanism. The results revealed that: (1) CCD in the YRB was at a medium level with an upward trend, while subsystems showed clear differences. (2) CCD's geographical distribution exhibited a clustering feature, with high value concentrating downstream and low value concentrating upstream. (3) Evolutionary trends illustrated the differences in basin location and resource dependency. (4) Population density, green innovation level, and openness were the dominant driving factors of the PREE system. Relevant policies were proposed to manage and coordinate the human-nature relationship.

摘要

中国快速的城市化和工业化带来了经济增长和生活水平的提高,与此同时也出现了环境退化和资源过度开发的问题。黄河流域也面临着生态保护和高质量发展的重任。因此,协调黄河流域社会经济与生态环境之间的关系至关重要。本研究构建了人口-资源-环境-经济(PREE)系统,运用熵权-TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型(CCDM)、空间自相关法、核密度估计和地理探测器模型,对2011年至2021年黄河流域可持续发展进行评估,分析其时空分布、空间集聚特征、演化趋势及驱动机制。结果表明:(1)黄河流域耦合协调度处于中等水平且呈上升趋势,而各子系统存在明显差异。(2)耦合协调度的地理分布呈现集聚特征,高值集中在下游,低值集中在上游。(3)演化趋势表明流域区位和资源依赖存在差异。(4)人口密度、绿色创新水平和开放程度是PREE系统主导驱动因素。提出了相关政策以调节人与自然关系。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/75aa/11682326/11a6fa7a309f/41598_2024_82419_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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