Yadav Sangeeta, Kalkal Sunil
Department of Physics and Materials Science, Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology, Patiala, Punjab, India.
Department of Physics and Materials Science, Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology, Patiala, Punjab, India E-mail:
J Water Health. 2024 Dec;22(12):2304-2319. doi: 10.2166/wh.2024.188. Epub 2024 Dec 3.
Groundwater contamination is a major environmental concern in many regions of India, including several districts of Punjab. In this study, a comparison is carried out between the deterministic and probabilistic approaches for calculating health hazard parameters due to arsenic contamination in groundwater in India. The probabilistic calculations are carried out through Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify the hazard index (HI) and carcinogenic risk. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the contribution of input variables to the HI. From the deterministic and probabilistic approach, an HI greater than one is obtained in adults for all districts except Moga, whereas, for children, the HI is greater than 1 in all districts. This suggests a higher probability of risks, such as developmental problems and cardiovascular disorders. Excess lifetime carcinogenic risk, a measure of carcinogenic risk, is found above the US Environmental Protection Agency's recommended range of 1 × 10 to 1 × 10 in all districts. These values clearly indicate the long-term carcinogenic danger associated with arsenic exposure since they are far above the tolerable risk threshold of 1 × 10. Thus, necessary mitigation measures should be taken, and routine groundwater monitoring should be performed.
地下水污染是印度许多地区（包括旁遮普邦的几个地区）主要的环境问题。在本研究中，对印度地下水砷污染导致的健康危害参数计算的确定性方法和概率性方法进行了比较。概率计算通过蒙特卡罗模拟进行，以量化危害指数（HI）和致癌风险。进行敏感性分析以确定输入变量对HI的贡献。从确定性和概率性方法来看，除莫加区外，所有地区成人的HI均大于1，而对于儿童，所有地区的HI均大于1。这表明存在发育问题和心血管疾病等风险的可能性更高。终生致癌风险超标，这是一种致癌风险衡量指标，在所有地区都高于美国环境保护局建议的1×10至1×10的范围。这些值清楚地表明了与砷暴露相关的长期致癌危险，因为它们远高于1×10的可容忍风险阈值。因此，应采取必要的缓解措施，并进行常规的地下水监测。
