Saito Tomohiro, Mochizuki Mie, Kobayashi Kisho, Narusawa Hiromune, Watanabe Daisuke, Makino Koichi, Yagasaki Hideaki, Sato Kazumasa, Sano Tomoaki, Ohta Masanori, Yokomichi Hiroshi, Amemiya Shin, Kobayashi Koji
Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine Graduate School of Medicine, University of Yamanashi, Shimokato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 1110, 409- 3898, Japan.
Department of Pediatrics, Yamanashi Prefectural Central Hospital, Yamanashi, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 2;15(1):484. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-84654-z.
It has been hypothesized that the biopsychosocial stress associated with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, in combination with the immunological effects of SARS-CoV-2 and pancreatic β-cell dysfunction, may contribute to the onset of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in children. In this study, we documented the incidences of T1D in Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan, from 1986 to 2018, and expanded the analysis to include cases from 2019 to 2022 to evaluate the potential influence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on T1D incidence. The COVID-19 pandemic period was defined as 2020 to 2022. Data spanning from 1986 to 2022 were analyzed in annual increments, while data from 1987 to 2022 were analyzed in 3-year interval increments using Joinpoint regression analysis. Across all analyses, no joinpoints were identified, and a consistent linear increase was observed. These findings suggest that there was no statistically significant change in the incidence of T1D attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in Yamanashi Prefecture. The annual increase in the incidence was calculated to be 3.384% per year, while the increase in the 3-year interval incidence was calculated to be 2.395% per year. Although the incidence of pediatric T1D among children aged 0-14 years in Yamanashi Prefecture increased during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022), this trend appeared to be a continuation of the pre-2019 increase. The direct or indirect impact of COVID-19 on this trend could not be conclusively determined due to the limited number of cases included in this study.
据推测，与严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）大流行相关的生物心理社会压力，加上SARS-CoV-2的免疫效应和胰腺β细胞功能障碍，可能导致儿童1型糖尿病（T1D）的发病。在本研究中，我们记录了1986年至2018年日本山梨县T1D的发病率，并将分析扩展至包括2019年至2022年的病例，以评估2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）对T1D发病率的潜在影响。COVID-19大流行期定义为2020年至2022年。对1986年至2022年的数据按年度增量进行分析，而对1987年至2022年的数据使用Joinpoint回归分析按3年间隔增量进行分析。在所有分析中，均未发现连接点，观察到一致的线性增加。这些发现表明，山梨县因COVID-19大流行导致的T1D发病率没有统计学上的显著变化。发病率的年增长率计算为每年3.384%，而3年间隔发病率的增长率计算为每年2.395%。尽管在COVID-19大流行期间（2020 - 2022年）山梨县0 - 14岁儿童的小儿T1D发病率有所上升，但这一趋势似乎是2019年前上升趋势的延续。由于本研究纳入的病例数量有限，无法最终确定COVID-19对这一趋势的直接或间接影响。
