Sangiorgio Emanuele, Di Marco Niccolò, Etta Gabriele, Cinelli Matteo, Cerqueti Roy, Quattrociocchi Walter
Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
Department of Computer Science, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 3;15(1):639. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-84960-6.
As virality has become increasingly central in shaping information sources' strategies, it raises concerns about its consequences for society, particularly when referring to the impact of viral news on the public discourse. Nonetheless, there has been little consideration of whether these viral events genuinely boost the attention received by the source. To address this gap, we analyze content timelines from over 1000 European news outlets from 2018 to 2023 on Facebook and YouTube, employing a Bayesian structural time series model to evaluate the impact of viral posts. Our results show that most viral events do not significantly increase engagement and rarely lead to sustained growth. We identify two primary types of viral effects corresponding to different mechanisms of collective attention response. A 'loaded-type' virality manifests after a sustained growth phase, representing its final burst, followed by a decline in attention. A 'sudden-type' virality, with news emerging unexpectedly, reactivates the collective response process. Moreover, quick viral effects fade faster, while slower processes lead to more persistent growth. These findings highlight the transient nature of viral events and underscore the importance of consistent, steady attention-building strategies to establish a solid connection with the user base rather than relying on sudden visibility spikes.
随着传播力在塑造信息源策略方面变得越来越核心,它引发了人们对其对社会影响的担忧,尤其是当涉及到病毒式传播的新闻对公共话语的影响时。然而,很少有人考虑这些病毒式传播事件是否真的能提高信息源所获得的关注度。为了填补这一空白,我们分析了2018年至2023年期间1000多家欧洲新闻媒体在脸书和YouTube上的内容时间线,采用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型来评估病毒式传播帖子的影响。我们的结果表明,大多数病毒式传播事件不会显著提高参与度,也很少导致持续增长。我们确定了两种主要的病毒式传播效应类型,它们对应于集体关注反应的不同机制。一种“加载型”传播力在持续增长阶段之后显现,代表其最后的爆发,随后关注度下降。一种“突发型”传播力,新闻意外出现,重新激活集体反应过程。此外,快速的病毒式传播效应消退得更快,而较慢的过程会导致更持久的增长。这些发现凸显了病毒式传播事件的短暂性,并强调了采用一致、稳定的注意力建立策略以与用户群体建立牢固联系的重要性,而不是依赖于突然的知名度飙升。