Mackelprang Rachel, Barbato Robyn A, Ramey Andrew M, Schütte Ursel M E, Waldrop Mark P
California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, USA.
U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA.
mSystems. 2025 Feb 18;10(2):e0004224. doi: 10.1128/msystems.00042-24. Epub 2025 Jan 8.
Climate change is inducing wide-scale permafrost thaw in the Arctic and subarctic, triggering concerns that long-dormant pathogens could reemerge from the thawing ground and initiate epidemics or pandemics. Viruses, as opposed to bacterial pathogens, garner particular interest because outbreaks cannot be controlled with antibiotics, though the effects can be mitigated by vaccines and newer antiviral drugs. To evaluate the potential hazards posed by viral pathogens emerging from thawing permafrost, we review information from a diverse range of disciplines. This includes efforts to recover infectious virus from human remains, studies on disease occurrence in polar animal populations, investigations into viral persistence and infectivity in permafrost, and assessments of human exposure to the enormous viral diversity present in the environment. Based on currently available knowledge, we conclude that the risk posed by viruses from thawing permafrost is no greater than viruses in other environments such as temperate soils and aquatic systems.
气候变化正在导致北极和亚北极地区的永久冻土大规模解冻，引发了人们对长期休眠的病原体可能从解冻的土地中重新出现并引发流行病或大流行的担忧。与细菌病原体不同，病毒格外引人关注，因为抗生素无法控制病毒爆发，不过疫苗和新型抗病毒药物可以减轻其影响。为了评估永久冻土解冻后出现的病毒病原体所构成的潜在危害，我们回顾了来自多个不同学科的信息。这包括从人类遗骸中恢复传染性病毒的研究、对极地动物种群疾病发生情况的研究、对病毒在永久冻土中的持久性和传染性的调查，以及对人类接触环境中大量病毒多样性情况的评估。根据目前现有的知识，我们得出结论，永久冻土解冻产生的病毒所构成的风险并不比温带土壤和水生系统等其他环境中的病毒风险更大。
