Erhart Szilárd, Szabó Sándor, Erhart Kornél
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
, Budapest, Hungary.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 7;15(1):1207. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82533-1.
We present a methodology to develop the integrated climate change transition and physical risk assessment of industrial companies in Europe, Northern America and Australia. There is an increasingly important need for effective large-scale climate change risk assessment solutions with more governments aligning their company reporting regulations with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures recommendations. In this paper, we measure key aspects of climate change risks of industrial firms on the globe and vice versa. The study provides valuable insights into climate risk exposure for companies, investors, and consumers, offering a pioneering approach by integrating data from major international registers. We analyse data from 70,000 companies and their 170,000 plants, which report to fragmented Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers and Greenhouse Gas Reporting Programs. For our assessment, transition risks are measured in terms of reported greenhouse gas emissions, while physical risks calculated for all company plant locations in terms of historical cooling energy needs, flood exposure and photovoltaic power potential. We show that climate change transition and physical risks are not correlated, therefore climate change risks are variably felt across different factors. The research contributes to the evolving landscape of climate risk management and highlights the need for standardized methodologies in the face of impending regulatory changes.
我们提出了一种方法,用于对欧洲、北美和澳大利亚的工业公司开展综合气候变化转型和物理风险评估。随着越来越多的政府将其公司报告法规与气候相关财务披露工作组的建议保持一致,对有效的大规模气候变化风险评估解决方案的需求日益重要。在本文中,我们衡量了全球工业公司气候变化风险的关键方面,反之亦然。该研究为公司、投资者和消费者提供了有关气候风险敞口的宝贵见解,通过整合来自主要国际登记册的数据提供了一种开创性方法。我们分析了7万家公司及其17万处工厂的数据,这些公司向分散的污染物排放和转移登记册以及温室气体报告计划进行报告。对于我们的评估,转型风险根据报告的温室气体排放量来衡量,而物理风险则根据所有公司工厂所在地的历史制冷能源需求、洪水暴露情况和光伏发电潜力来计算。我们表明,气候变化转型风险和物理风险并不相关,因此气候变化风险在不同因素之间的感受各不相同。这项研究为不断发展的气候风险管理格局做出了贡献,并凸显了面对即将到来的监管变化时采用标准化方法的必要性。