Wojan Timothy R, Lambert Dayton M
Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Research Ambassadors Program, National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, U.S. National Science Foundation, Alexandria, Virginia, United States of America.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 9;20(1):e0313826. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313826. eCollection 2025.
A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau's Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics from de novo estimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.
一种分割样本/双重方法研究方案被证明能提高透明度,同时降低错误发现的概率。我们应用该方案,利用2018年美国人口普查局年度商业调查的数据,来检验所有权团队的多样性是增加还是降低了公司报告一项新颖创新的可能性。透明度通过三种方式得以提高:1)所有的规格测试和识别潜在有效模型都在一个探索性子样本中进行,2)在保留确认样本中从头开始估计时,保持假设检验统计量的有效性,3)所有结果都在一份早期的预注册报告和本期刊发表中公开记录。在确认阶段估计中利用探索阶段信息的贝叶斯估计程序取代了传统的频率主义零假设显著性检验。除了通过使用全样本信息提高统计效力外,贝叶斯方法还直接估计效应大小的概率分布,从而允许进行更丰富的推断。沿着学术学科、种族、民族和外国出生身份维度估计的多样性大小与创新呈正相关。在这些维度上拥有最大多样性的所有权团队报告新上市创新的可能性大约是同质化团队的六倍。