Serra-Garcia Marta, Gneezy Uri
Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA, USA.
Sci Adv. 2021 May 21;7(21). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd1705. Print 2021 May.
We use publicly available data to show that published papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate are cited more than those that replicate. This difference in citation does not change after the publication of the failure to replicate. Only 12% of postreplication citations of nonreplicable findings acknowledge the replication failure. Existing evidence also shows that experts predict well which papers will be replicated. Given this prediction, why are nonreplicable papers accepted for publication in the first place? A possible answer is that the review team faces a trade-off. When the results are more "interesting," they apply lower standards regarding their reproducibility.
我们利用公开可用的数据表明,发表在顶级心理学、经济学和大众兴趣期刊上但未能被重复验证的论文,比那些能够被重复验证的论文被引用得更多。在未能重复验证的结果发表后,这种引用差异并没有改变。不可重复研究结果在重复验证后的引用中,只有12%承认了重复验证失败。现有证据还表明,专家能够很好地预测哪些论文将会被重复验证。基于这一预测,那么为什么不可重复的论文一开始会被接受发表呢?一个可能的答案是,评审团队面临着一种权衡。当研究结果更“有趣”时,他们在可重复性方面就会采用较低的标准。