Center for Open Science, Charlottesville, VA 22903;
Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Mar 13;115(11):2600-2606. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1708274114.
Progress in science relies in part on generating hypotheses with existing observations and testing hypotheses with new observations. This distinction between postdiction and prediction is appreciated conceptually but is not respected in practice. Mistaking generation of postdictions with testing of predictions reduces the credibility of research findings. However, ordinary biases in human reasoning, such as hindsight bias, make it hard to avoid this mistake. An effective solution is to define the research questions and analysis plan before observing the research outcomes-a process called preregistration. Preregistration distinguishes analyses and outcomes that result from predictions from those that result from postdictions. A variety of practical strategies are available to make the best possible use of preregistration in circumstances that fall short of the ideal application, such as when the data are preexisting. Services are now available for preregistration across all disciplines, facilitating a rapid increase in the practice. Widespread adoption of preregistration will increase distinctiveness between hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing and will improve the credibility of research findings.
科学的进展部分依赖于利用现有观察结果提出假设,并利用新观察结果检验假设。这种后测和预测之间的区别在概念上是可以理解的,但在实践中并没有得到尊重。将后测的产生误认为是预测的检验,会降低研究结果的可信度。然而,人类推理中的普通偏见,如后见之明偏差,使得很难避免这种错误。一个有效的解决方案是在观察研究结果之前定义研究问题和分析计划——这个过程称为预先注册。预先注册区分了由预测产生的分析和结果与由后测产生的分析和结果。有各种各样的实用策略可以在不完全符合理想应用的情况下(例如数据是预先存在的情况下),尽可能地利用预先注册。现在,所有学科都提供预先注册服务,这促进了预先注册实践的快速增长。广泛采用预先注册将提高假设生成和假设检验之间的区别,并提高研究结果的可信度。