Suppr超能文献

预注册革命。

The preregistration revolution.

机构信息

Center for Open Science, Charlottesville, VA 22903;

Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Mar 13;115(11):2600-2606. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1708274114.

Abstract

Progress in science relies in part on generating hypotheses with existing observations and testing hypotheses with new observations. This distinction between postdiction and prediction is appreciated conceptually but is not respected in practice. Mistaking generation of postdictions with testing of predictions reduces the credibility of research findings. However, ordinary biases in human reasoning, such as hindsight bias, make it hard to avoid this mistake. An effective solution is to define the research questions and analysis plan before observing the research outcomes-a process called preregistration. Preregistration distinguishes analyses and outcomes that result from predictions from those that result from postdictions. A variety of practical strategies are available to make the best possible use of preregistration in circumstances that fall short of the ideal application, such as when the data are preexisting. Services are now available for preregistration across all disciplines, facilitating a rapid increase in the practice. Widespread adoption of preregistration will increase distinctiveness between hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing and will improve the credibility of research findings.

摘要

科学的进展部分依赖于利用现有观察结果提出假设,并利用新观察结果检验假设。这种后测和预测之间的区别在概念上是可以理解的,但在实践中并没有得到尊重。将后测的产生误认为是预测的检验,会降低研究结果的可信度。然而,人类推理中的普通偏见,如后见之明偏差,使得很难避免这种错误。一个有效的解决方案是在观察研究结果之前定义研究问题和分析计划——这个过程称为预先注册。预先注册区分了由预测产生的分析和结果与由后测产生的分析和结果。有各种各样的实用策略可以在不完全符合理想应用的情况下(例如数据是预先存在的情况下),尽可能地利用预先注册。现在,所有学科都提供预先注册服务,这促进了预先注册实践的快速增长。广泛采用预先注册将提高假设生成和假设检验之间的区别,并提高研究结果的可信度。

相似文献

1
The preregistration revolution.预注册革命。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Mar 13;115(11):2600-2606. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1708274114.
2
Preregistering qualitative research.预先注册定性研究。
Account Res. 2019 Apr;26(3):229-244. doi: 10.1080/08989621.2019.1580147. Epub 2019 Mar 1.
3
Scientific progress despite irreproducibility: A seeming paradox.科学进步尽管不可重现:一个看似矛盾的现象。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Mar 13;115(11):2632-2639. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1711786114.
4
Preregistration of Analyses of Preexisting Data.对已有数据进行分析的预注册。
Psychol Belg. 2019 Aug 22;59(1):338-352. doi: 10.5334/pb.493.
7
Making ERP research more transparent: Guidelines for preregistration.使 ERP 研究更加透明:预注册指南。
Int J Psychophysiol. 2021 Jun;164:52-63. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpsycho.2021.02.016. Epub 2021 Mar 4.
9
Preregistration Is Hard, And Worthwhile.预先注册很难,但很有价值。
Trends Cogn Sci. 2019 Oct;23(10):815-818. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009. Epub 2019 Aug 14.

引用本文的文献

7
Science becomes trustworthy by constantly questioning itself.科学通过不断自我质疑而变得值得信赖。
PLoS Biol. 2025 Aug 1;23(8):e3003334. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3003334. eCollection 2025 Aug.
10

本文引用的文献

1
A manifesto for reproducible science.可重复科学宣言。
Nat Hum Behav. 2017 Jan 10;1(1):0021. doi: 10.1038/s41562-016-0021.
2
Redefine statistical significance.重新定义统计学显著性。
Nat Hum Behav. 2018 Jan;2(1):6-10. doi: 10.1038/s41562-017-0189-z.
5
Detecting and avoiding likely false-positive findings - a practical guide.检测和避免可能的假阳性发现——实用指南。
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2017 Nov;92(4):1941-1968. doi: 10.1111/brv.12315. Epub 2016 Nov 23.

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法,用中文像聊天一样搜索,搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐,让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版,准确专业,支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式,支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述,25分钟生成高质量综述,智能提取关键信息,辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验