Zhong Sheng, Yang Lingyi, Papageorgiou Dimitri J, Su Bin, Ng Tsan Sheng, Abubakar Saifudin
Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119620, Singapore.
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ 08801, USA.
iScience. 2024 Dec 6;28(1):111547. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111547. eCollection 2025 Jan 17.
Faced with energy transition objectives, the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have technology options to decarbonize power sector. This study investigates the hypothetical decarbonization pathways for ASEAN's power sector. Here, we present an integrated power system capacity expansion model for ASEAN over 2018-2050. The results identify different pathways by strategically pursuing renewable energy, carbon capture and sequestration, and cross-border transmission. Transmission, while accounting for a marginal share in total cost (up to 0.5%), can reduce cumulative system costs by 11.9% and help achieve net-zero emissions. Across scenarios, generation infrastructure will require a cumulative investment equivalent to 29.6%-44.6% of ASEAN's 2018 GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The investment requirements for the expansion plan, however, are unevenly distributed across countries, especially with the ambition to achieve a carbon-neutral power sector. Country-specific investments in decarbonization are a consideration for the region.
面对能源转型目标，东南亚国家联盟（东盟）的十个成员国拥有使电力部门脱碳的技术选择。本研究调查了东盟电力部门假设的脱碳路径。在此，我们提出了一个2018年至2050年东盟综合电力系统容量扩展模型。结果通过战略性地发展可再生能源、碳捕获与封存以及跨境输电确定了不同路径。输电虽在总成本中占比很小（最高达0.5%），但可使累计系统成本降低11.9%并有助于实现净零排放。在所有情景中，发电基础设施累计投资将相当于东盟2018年国内生产总值（GDP）的29.6%至44.6%。然而，扩张计划的投资需求在各国分布不均，尤其是在实现电力部门碳中和的目标方面。各国在脱碳方面的特定投资是该地区需要考虑的因素。
