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对脆弱性、其驱动因素以及为降低牧业和农牧兼作生计对气候冲击的脆弱性而采取的策略进行分析。

Analysis of vulnerability, its drivers, and strategies applied towards reducing the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood vulnerability to climatic shocks.

作者信息

Tofu Daniel Assefa, Dilbato Tegegn, Fana Chalchisa, Dirbaba Niguse Bekele, Tesso Gutu

机构信息

School of Natural Resources, Ambo University, Ambo, Ethiopia.

School of Veterinary Medicine, Ambo University, Ambo, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 20;15(1):2567. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79165-w.

Abstract

In recent decades, the global climate has changed mainly due to human-induced causes and realizing their manifestations in the forms of extreme events such as droughts, floods, heat stress, and variability in rainfall. Arid and semi-arid ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate variability, including the Borana zone. This study was therefore initiated to assess how vulnerable pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods are to climate change, as well as to estimate the effects, and pinpoint potential response measures that could be implemented in the study area. Data were gathered by surveys, focused group and expert group discussions. The quantitative data were analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics, while the qualitative data was analyzed using thematically organized content analysis. The findings indicate that there is high degree of climatic risk to the livelihoods of both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists (- 0.37). The ability of pastoralists to adapt in comparison to agro-pastoralists is largely determined by numbers of factors, including inadequate livelihood strategies, poor access to social safety networks and services, knowledge and communication gaps, and availability of water resources. The area was extremely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which led to disaster. The primary outcome, which also affects other sources of income, is the loss of livestock (97%) which is followed by food shortages (91%), decreased income (84%), feed scarcity (83%), water scarcity (80%), and crop failure (79%). Managing livestock, taking advantage of social capital, storing hay and crop residue, and destocking animals during the period of severe drought were the main strategies used to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the adaptive capacity. Furthermore, despite the government's numerous efforts to lesson enduring vulnerabilities and their effects, progress has not been encouraging because of lack of proactive action when faced with emergences. Hence, in order to decrease vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity, policymakers and development practitioners should collaborate proactively and develop area-specific adaptation strategies. These might include income diversification, increased access to water and pasture; installation of easily accessible market channels; and establishment of early warning systems that assist community preparation and resilience.

摘要

近几十年来,全球气候主要因人为因素而发生变化,并以干旱、洪水、热应激和降雨变化等极端事件的形式显现出来。干旱和半干旱生态系统,包括博拉纳地区,对气候变化十分敏感。因此,开展这项研究是为了评估牧区和农牧兼作生计对气候变化的脆弱程度,估算其影响,并确定可在研究区域实施的潜在应对措施。通过调查、焦点小组和专家组讨论收集数据。定量数据通过描述性和推断性统计进行分析,而定性数据则采用主题组织的内容分析法进行分析。研究结果表明,牧民和农牧民的生计面临着高度的气候风险(-0.37)。与农牧民相比,牧民的适应能力在很大程度上取决于多个因素,包括生计策略不足、获得社会安全网络和服务的机会有限、知识和沟通差距以及水资源的可获得性。该地区极易受到气候变化的影响,进而引发灾害。主要后果是牲畜损失(97%),这也影响到其他收入来源,其次是粮食短缺(91%)收入减少(84%)、饲料短缺(83%)、水资源短缺(80%)和作物歉收(79%)。管理牲畜、利用社会资本、储存干草和作物残渣,以及在严重干旱时期减少牲畜存栏是减少脆弱性和增强适应能力的主要策略。此外,尽管政府为减轻长期存在的脆弱性及其影响做出了诸多努力,但由于面对紧急情况时缺乏积极行动,进展并不令人鼓舞。因此,为了降低脆弱性并提高适应能力,政策制定者和发展从业者应积极合作,制定针对特定地区的适应策略。这些策略可能包括收入多样化、增加获得水和牧场的机会;建立易于进入的市场渠道;以及建立预警系统,以帮助社区做好准备并增强复原力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ebee/11747342/336cbcdf0b81/41598_2024_79165_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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