Arboleda Lady Paola Aristizabal, de Souza Dyego Leandro Bezerra, Mendonça E Silva Diego Rodrigues, Curado Maria Paula
Graduate Program of A.C.Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo, Brazil.
Department of Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2025 Apr 3;34(4):518-526. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-24-0863.
Oropharyngeal cancer incidence is rising globally, predominantly in high-income countries, because of human papillomavirus infection. However, further data on oropharyngeal cancer incidence in Brazil is needed. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence, trends, and predictions of oropharyngeal cancer in Brazilian population-based cancer registries (PBCR) by period, sex, and topography.
Data on oropharyngeal cancer were collected from PBCRs (1988-2020). Age-standardized rates were calculated from 2000 onward using the 2010 Brazilian census and world standard population. Annual average percent change was analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. Predictions up to 2034 were made using the Nordpred program and the age-period-cohort model.
A total of 17,980 oropharyngeal cancer cases were recorded across 30 PBCRs (1988-2020). Most cases involved males (81.58%) ages 55 to 59 years (17.06%). The oropharynx not otherwise specified (40.58%), base of the tongue (24.98%), and tonsils (22.52%) were the sites most affected. The highest incidence rates were found in the southeastern and southern regions (3.1-9.4/100,000). Incidence trends increased for 10 PBCR regions in males and 6 regions in females. Predictions up until 2034 indicate decreasing trends for females and increasing trends for males in the north and south of Brazil.
The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer in Brazil differs among regions, with higher rates observed in the south and southeast. The prevalence of the human papillomavirus-attributable fraction for oropharyngeal cancer is unknown.
Analysis of oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates and regional trends aims to better understand the epidemiology of this malignancy in the Brazilian population.
由于人乳头瘤病毒感染，口咽癌的发病率在全球范围内呈上升趋势，主要发生在高收入国家。然而，巴西口咽癌发病率还需要更多数据。本研究的目的是按时期、性别和部位估计巴西基于人群的癌症登记处（PBCR）中口咽癌的发病率、趋势和预测。
从PBCR（1988 - 2020年）收集口咽癌数据。从2000年起，使用2010年巴西人口普查数据和世界标准人口计算年龄标准化率。使用连接点回归模型分析年平均变化百分比。使用Nordpred程序和年龄 - 时期 - 队列模型对2034年前的情况进行预测。
30个PBCR（1988 - 2020年）共记录了17980例口咽癌病例。大多数病例为55至59岁的男性（81.58%）。未另作说明的口咽（40.58%）、舌根（24.98%）和扁桃体（22.52%）是受影响最严重的部位。东南部和南部地区发病率最高（3.1 - 9.4/10万）。男性中有10个PBCR地区和女性中有6个地区的发病率呈上升趋势。到2034年的预测表明，巴西北部和南部女性发病率呈下降趋势，男性呈上升趋势。
巴西口咽癌发病率因地区而异，南部和东南部发病率较高。口咽癌中人乳头瘤病毒归因比例的流行情况尚不清楚。
对口咽癌发病率和区域趋势的分析旨在更好地了解巴西人群中这种恶性肿瘤的流行病学情况。
