Bartsch Sarah M, Chin Kevin L, Strych Ulrich, John Danielle C, Shah Tej D, Bottazzi Maria Elena, O'Shea Kelly J, Robertson McKaylee, Weatherwax Colleen, Heneghan Jessie, Martinez Marie F, Ciciriello Allan, Kulkarni Sarah, Velmurugan Kavya, Dibbs Alexis, Scannell Sheryl A, Shen Yanhan, Nash Denis, Hotez Peter J, Lee Bruce Y
Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA.
Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA.
J Infect Dis. 2025 Jan 22. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf030.
Long COVID, which affects an estimated 44.69-48.04 million people in the U.S., is an ongoing public health concern that will continue to grow as SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread.
We developed a computational simulation model representing the clinical course, the health effects, and the associated costs of a person with Long COVID.
Simulations show that the average total cost of a Long COVID case can range from $5,084-$11,646 (assuming symptoms only last 1 year) with 92.5%-95.2% of these costs being productivity losses. Therefore, the current number of Long COVID cases could end up costing society at least $2.01-$6.56 billion, employers at least $1.99-$6.49 billion in productivity losses, and third-party payers $21-68.5 million annually (6%-20% probability of developing Long COVID). These cases would accrue 35,808-121,259 QALYs lost and 13,484-45,468 DALYs. Moreover, each year, there may be an additional $698.5 million in total costs, 14,685 QALYs lost, and 5,628 DALYs, if the incidence of COVID is 100 per 10,000 persons (similar to that seen in 2023). Every 10-point increase in COVID incidence results in an additional $365 million in total costs, 5,070 QALYs lost, and 1,900 DALYs each year.
The current health and economic burden of Long COVID may already exceed that of a number of other chronic disease and will continue to grow each year as there are more and more COVID-19 cases. This could be a significant drain on businesses, third party payers, the healthcare system, and all of society.
在美国，估计有4469万至4804万人受长期新冠影响，这是一个持续存在的公共卫生问题，随着新冠病毒的持续传播，该问题还将继续加剧。
我们开发了一个计算模拟模型，用于呈现长期新冠患者的临床病程、健康影响及相关成本。
模拟显示，一例长期新冠病例的平均总成本可能在5084美元至11646美元之间（假设症状仅持续1年），其中92.5%至95.2%的成本为生产力损失。因此，目前的长期新冠病例数量最终可能使社会成本至少增加20.1亿至65.6亿美元，雇主的生产力损失至少增加19.9亿至64.9亿美元，第三方支付者每年损失2100万至6850万美元（患长期新冠的概率为6%至20%）。这些病例将导致35808至121259个质量调整生命年（QALY）损失以及13484至45468个伤残调整生命年（DALY）。此外，如果新冠发病率为每10000人中有100例（与2023年的情况类似），那么每年可能还会产生额外的6.985亿美元总成本、14685个QALY损失以及5628个DALY。新冠发病率每增加10个百分点，每年将导致总成本额外增加3.65亿美元、QALY损失增加5070个以及DALY增加1900个。
目前长期新冠造成的健康和经济负担可能已经超过了一些其他慢性病，并且随着新冠病例越来越多，每年还将继续增加。这可能会给企业、第三方支付者、医疗系统以及整个社会带来巨大负担。
