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Machine learning based prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk using electronic health records data: systematic review and meta-analysis.

作者信息

Liu Tianyi, Krentz Andrew, Lu Lei, Curcin Vasa

机构信息

School of Life Course & Population Sciences, King's College London, SE1 1UL London, UK.

Metadvice, 45 Pall Mall, St. James's SW1Y 5JG London, UK.

出版信息

Eur Heart J Digit Health. 2024 Oct 27;6(1):7-22. doi: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztae080. eCollection 2025 Jan.


DOI:10.1093/ehjdh/ztae080
PMID:39846062
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11750195/
Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a major cause of mortality in the UK, prompting the need for improved risk predictive models for primary prevention. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing electronic health records (EHRs) offer potential enhancements over traditional risk scores like QRISK3 and ASCVD. To systematically evaluate and compare the efficacy of ML models against conventional CVD risk prediction algorithms using EHR data for medium to long-term (5-10 years) CVD risk prediction. A systematic review and random-effect meta-analysis were conducted according to preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines, assessing studies from 2010 to 2024. We retrieved 32 ML models and 26 conventional statistical models from 20 selected studies, focusing on performance metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) and heterogeneity across models. ML models, particularly random forest and deep learning, demonstrated superior performance, with the highest recorded pooled AUCs of 0.865 (95% CI: 0.812-0.917) and 0.847 (95% CI: 0.766-0.927), respectively. These significantly outperformed the conventional risk score of 0.765 (95% CI: 0.734-0.796). However, significant heterogeneity (I² > 99%) and potential publication bias were noted across the studies. While ML models show enhanced calibration for CVD risk, substantial variability and methodological concerns limit their current clinical applicability. Future research should address these issues by enhancing methodological transparency and standardization to improve the reliability and utility of these models in clinical settings. This study highlights the advanced capabilities of ML models in CVD risk prediction and emphasizes the need for rigorous validation to facilitate their integration into clinical practice.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/1968864fe883/ztae080f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/75ed5309b146/ztae080_ga.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/ec07e8730149/ztae080f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/289a2766ac84/ztae080f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/30474d9757c8/ztae080f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/1968864fe883/ztae080f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/75ed5309b146/ztae080_ga.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/ec07e8730149/ztae080f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/289a2766ac84/ztae080f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/30474d9757c8/ztae080f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c50/11750195/1968864fe883/ztae080f4.jpg

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Machine learning based prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk using electronic health records data: systematic review and meta-analysis.

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[5]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Development and validation of a new algorithm for improved cardiovascular risk prediction.

Nat Med. 2024-5

[2]
TRIPOD+AI statement: updated guidance for reporting clinical prediction models that use regression or machine learning methods.

BMJ. 2024-4-16

[3]
Artificial intelligence in the risk prediction models of cardiovascular disease and development of an independent validation screening tool: a systematic review.

BMC Med. 2024-2-5

[4]
Prioritizing the primary prevention of heart failure: Measuring, modifying and monitoring risk.

Prog Cardiovasc Dis. 2024

[5]
A novel attention-based cross-modal transfer learning framework for predicting cardiovascular disease.

Comput Biol Med. 2024-3

[6]
Discovering biomarkers associated and predicting cardiovascular disease with high accuracy using a novel nexus of machine learning techniques for precision medicine.

Sci Rep. 2024-1-2

[7]
Development and Validation of a Bayesian Network-Based Model for Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk From Electronic Health Records.

J Am Heart Assoc. 2024-1-2

[8]
Machine Learning and the Conundrum of Stroke Risk Prediction.

Arrhythm Electrophysiol Rev. 2023-4-12

[9]
Artificial intelligence in cardiovascular prevention: new ways will open new doors.

J Cardiovasc Med (Hagerstown). 2023-5-1

[10]
Characterization of Inclination Analysis for Predicting Onset of Heart Failure from Primary Care Electronic Medical Records.

Sensors (Basel). 2023-4-24

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