文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

基于贝叶斯网络的电子健康记录预测冠心病风险模型的建立与验证。

Development and Validation of a Bayesian Network-Based Model for Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk From Electronic Health Records.

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University Jinan Shandong China.

National Institute of Health Data Science of China Jinan Shandong China.

出版信息

J Am Heart Assoc. 2024 Jan 2;13(1):e029400. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.123.029400. Epub 2023 Dec 29.


DOI:10.1161/JAHA.123.029400
PMID:38156626
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10863831/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Traditional risk evaluation models have been applied to guide public health and clinical practice in various studies. However, the application of existing methods to data sets with missing and censored data, as is often the case in electronic health records, requires additional considerations. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model that exhibits high performance with data sets that contain missing and censored data. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a retrospective cohort study of coronary heart disease at Weihai Municipal Hospital on unique patients aged 18 to 96 years between 2013 and 2021. A total of 169 692 participants formed our study population, of which 10 895 participants were diagnosed with coronary heart disease. Models were built for the risk of coronary heart disease based on demographic, laboratory, and medical history variables. All complete samples were assigned to the training set (n=110 325), whereas the remaining samples were assigned to the validation set (n=59 367). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.800 (95% CI, 0.794-0.805), and the C statistic was 0.796 (95% CI, 0.791-0.801) in the derivation cohort, and the corresponding values were 0.837 (95% CI, 0.821-0.853) and 0.838 (95% CI, 0.822-0.854) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated its good calibration ability, and decision curve analysis showed its clinical usefulness. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed risk prediction model has demonstrated significant effectiveness in handling the complexities of electronic health record data, which often involve extensive missing data and censoring. This approach may offer potential assistance in the use of electronic health records to enhance patient outcomes.

摘要

背景:传统的风险评估模型已被应用于各种研究中,以指导公共卫生和临床实践。然而,在电子健康记录中经常出现的包含缺失和删失数据的数据集中应用现有方法需要额外的考虑。我们旨在开发和验证一种在包含缺失和删失数据的数据集中表现出高性能的预测模型。

方法和结果:这是一项对威海市立医院 2013 年至 2021 年间年龄在 18 至 96 岁的独特患者的冠心病的回顾性队列研究。共有 169692 名参与者构成了我们的研究人群,其中 10895 名参与者被诊断为冠心病。基于人口统计学、实验室和病史变量,为冠心病风险构建了模型。所有完整样本均被分配到训练集(n=110325),而其余样本则被分配到验证集(n=59367)。在推导队列中,受试者工作特征曲线下面积值为 0.800(95%置信区间,0.794-0.805),C 统计量为 0.796(95%置信区间,0.791-0.801),在验证队列中,相应的值分别为 0.837(95%置信区间,0.821-0.853)和 0.838(95%置信区间,0.822-0.854)。校准曲线表明其具有良好的校准能力,决策曲线分析表明其具有临床实用性。

结论:我们提出的风险预测模型在处理电子健康记录数据的复杂性方面表现出显著的效果,这些数据通常涉及广泛的缺失数据和删失。这种方法可能有助于利用电子健康记录来改善患者的结局。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/43c077760989/JAH3-13-e029400-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/e01952fed86c/JAH3-13-e029400-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/9128b3afdbd1/JAH3-13-e029400-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/b4a2a079e6fc/JAH3-13-e029400-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/43c077760989/JAH3-13-e029400-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/e01952fed86c/JAH3-13-e029400-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/9128b3afdbd1/JAH3-13-e029400-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/b4a2a079e6fc/JAH3-13-e029400-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/af24/10863831/43c077760989/JAH3-13-e029400-g004.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Development and Validation of a Bayesian Network-Based Model for Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk From Electronic Health Records.

J Am Heart Assoc. 2024-1-2

[2]
Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for detecting coronary heart disease in middle-aged and elderly people: a diagnostic study.

Eur J Med Res. 2023-9-25

[3]
Recurrent neural network models (CovRNN) for predicting outcomes of patients with COVID-19 on admission to hospital: model development and validation using electronic health record data.

Lancet Digit Health. 2022-6

[4]
Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Atrial Fibrillation Using Electronic Health Records.

JACC Clin Electrophysiol. 2019-10-2

[5]
Long-Term Exposure to Elevated Systolic Blood Pressure in Predicting Incident Cardiovascular Disease: Evidence From Large-Scale Routine Electronic Health Records.

J Am Heart Assoc. 2019-6-5

[6]
Predicting the risk of emergency admission with machine learning: Development and validation using linked electronic health records.

PLoS Med. 2018-11-20

[7]
Prediction of myopia development among Chinese school-aged children using refraction data from electronic medical records: A retrospective, multicentre machine learning study.

PLoS Med. 2018-11-6

[8]
Development and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model for Falls Using Electronic Health Records in a Hospital Setting.

J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2023-7

[9]
[Establishment and Validation of a Predictive Model for Gallstone Disease in the General Population: A Multicenter Study].

Sichuan Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2024-5-20

[10]
External Validation of PATHFx Version 3.0 in Patients Treated Surgically and Nonsurgically for Symptomatic Skeletal Metastases.

Clin Orthop Relat Res. 2020-4

引用本文的文献

[1]
Enhancing stroke-associated pneumonia prediction in ischemic stroke: An interpretable Bayesian network approach.

Digit Health. 2025-4-15

[2]
Optimising coronary imaging decisions with machine learning: an external validation study.

Open Heart. 2025-4-24

[3]
Sirtuin1 mitigates hypoxia-induced cardiomyocyte apoptosis in myocardial infarction via PHD3/HIF-1α.

Mol Med. 2025-3-14

[4]
Machine learning based prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk using electronic health records data: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Eur Heart J Digit Health. 2024-10-27

本文引用的文献

[1]
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

J Am Coll Cardiol. 2020-12-22

[2]
A simple, step-by-step guide to interpreting decision curve analysis.

Diagn Progn Res. 2019-10-4

[3]
Bayesian Networks for Risk Prediction Using Real-World Data: A Tool for Precision Medicine.

Value Health. 2019-3-15

[4]
Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

PLoS One. 2017-4-4

[5]
Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China).

Circulation. 2016-9-28

[6]
Adapting machine learning techniques to censored time-to-event health record data: A general-purpose approach using inverse probability of censoring weighting.

J Biomed Inform. 2016-6

[7]
A model for predicting individuals' absolute risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma: Moving toward tailored screening and prevention.

Int J Cancer. 2016-6-15

[8]
Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation.

Eur Heart J. 2014-8-1

[9]
Lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in a Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study.

Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2013-12-11

[10]
2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines.

J Am Coll Cardiol. 2014-7-1

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索