Estimating the Effect of Adhering to the Recommendations of the 2019 Canada's Food Guide on Health Outcomes in Older Adults: Protocol for a Target Trial Emulation.

BACKGROUND

The 2019 Canada's Food Guide provides universal recommendations to individuals aged ≥2 years. However, the extent to which these recommendations are appropriate for older adults is unknown. Although ideal, conducting a large randomized controlled trial is unrealistic in the short term. An alternative is the target trial emulation framework for causal inference, a novel approach to improve the analysis of observational data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe the protocol for a target trial emulation in older adults, with an emphasis on key aspects of a hypothetical sustained diet and physical activity intervention.

METHODS

To emulate the target trial, nonexperimental data from the Quebec Longitudinal Study on Nutrition and Successful Aging (NuAge; N=1753 adults aged ≥67 years) will be used. NuAge includes 4 yearly measurements of dietary intakes, covariates, and outcomes. The per-protocol causal contrast will be the primary causal contrast of interest to account for nonadherence. The sustained intervention strategy will be modeled using the parametric g-formula. In the hypothetical trial, participants will be instructed to meet sex-specific minimal intakes for vegetables and fruits, whole grains, animal- and plant-based protein foods, milk and plant-based beverages, and unsaturated fats. The eligibility criteria, follow-up, intervention, outcomes, and causal contrast in the emulation will closely align with those of the target trial, with only minor modifications. We will attempt to emulate the randomization of treatment by adjusting for baseline covariates and prebaseline dietary habits.

RESULTS

Data collection for NuAge was completed in June 2008. For this study, the main analysis was started in May 2024. Submission of the manuscript is expected by February 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

Emulating a target trial will provide the first evidence of the adequacy of the 2019 Canada's Food Guide recommendations for older adults in relation to health outcomes.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/65182.