Baverstock K F, Papworth D G
Br J Ind Med. 1985 May;42(5):341-5. doi: 10.1136/oem.42.5.341.
A model for cancer induction in man exposed to low doses of radiation and based on the analysis of a survey of workers from a nuclear fuel processing plant is examined and compared with that adopted by the ICRP to limit risks to radiation workers. It is shown that claims that ICRP has significantly underestimated the risk apply primarily to those exposed in later life, and arise from assumptions regarding the age dependence of sensitivity to radiation which are questionable. A preliminary attempt is made to test the proposed model using the United Kingdom luminiser population. Deaths from cancers in four tissues believed to be sensitive to radiation induced carcinogenesis are examined and the observed number of deaths in the study population is compared with the number predicted by the model. Taken individually, only one of these sites rejects the model but taken together these four sites, which comprise about half the cancer observed in the luminiser population, provide a conclusive rejection of the model.
研究了一个基于对核燃料加工厂工人调查分析的、针对低剂量辐射暴露人群的癌症诱发模型，并将其与国际放射防护委员会（ICRP）为限制辐射工作人员风险而采用的模型进行了比较。结果表明，声称ICRP显著低估风险的说法主要适用于晚年暴露人群，且源于对辐射敏感性年龄依赖性的假设，而这些假设存在疑问。初步尝试使用英国夜光涂料工人群体来检验该模型。研究了四种被认为对辐射诱发癌症敏感的组织中的癌症死亡情况，并将研究人群中的观察到的死亡人数与模型预测的死亡人数进行了比较。单独来看，这些部位中只有一个拒绝该模型，但这四个部位合在一起，约占夜光涂料工人群体中观察到的癌症的一半，从而确凿地拒绝了该模型。
