Xie Shiwei, Xiao Heng, Xu Lei, Li Gengwu, Zhang Fan, Luo Mingwei
Panzhihua Central Hospital, No. 34, Yikang Street, East District, Panzhihua City, 617067, Sichuan Province, China.
The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Wuhua District, Kunming City, 617000, Yunnan Province, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 26;15(1):3310. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-86090-z.
Gout is a prevalent metabolic disorder characterized by urate crystal accumulation in joints, leading to acute arthritis and tophi formation. Despite advancements in management, the incidence and prevalence of gout have been increasing globally, particularly in China. This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to evaluate trends in gout from 1990 to 2021. Statistical analyses were conducted using R and Joinpoint software, while the ARIMA model was employed for forecasting future trends. Our findings revealed a global increase in gout incidence from 93.097 per 100,000 in 1990 to 109.075 per 100,000 in 2021, with cases rising from 3,983,109 to 9,401,585. In China, incidence increased from 122.522 to 151.612 per 100,000, with cases growing from 1,182,498 to 3,079,836. Similarly, global prevalence rose from 536.545 to 653.816 per 100,000, while in China, it increased from 640.679 to 810.359 per 100,000. Disability metrics, including YLDs and DALYs, also demonstrated significant increases both globally and in China. Our analysis indicated that middle-aged and elderly populations, particularly males, are at higher risk for gout. These findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced prevention and management strategies, specifically targeting high-risk populations. Effective public health policies and interventions are crucial to mitigate the escalating burden of gout and improve the quality of life for affected individuals. This study relied on secondary data from the GBD, which may be subject to biases in data collection and reporting. Additionally, variations in diagnostic practices and healthcare access across regions could influence the accuracy of reported trends. Future research should address these limitations by incorporating primary data and exploring region-specific factors contributing to gout prevalence and incidence.
痛风是一种常见的代谢性疾病,其特征是尿酸盐晶体在关节中积聚,导致急性关节炎和痛风石形成。尽管在治疗方面取得了进展,但痛风的发病率和患病率在全球范围内一直在上升,尤其是在中国。本研究分析了全球疾病负担、伤害及风险因素研究(GBD)的数据,以评估1990年至2021年痛风的趋势。使用R和Joinpoint软件进行统计分析,同时采用自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测未来趋势。我们的研究结果显示,全球痛风发病率从1990年的每10万人93.097例增至2021年的每10万人109.075例,病例数从3983109例增至9401585例。在中国,发病率从每10万人122.522例增至151.612例,病例数从1182498例增至3079836例。同样,全球患病率从每10万人536.545例升至653.816例,而在中国,患病率从每10万人640.679例增至810.359例。包括伤残调整生命年(YLDs)和伤残调整生命损失年(DALYs)在内的残疾指标在全球和中国也都显著增加。我们的分析表明,中年和老年人群,尤其是男性,患痛风的风险更高。这些发现强调迫切需要加强预防和管理策略,特别是针对高危人群。有效的公共卫生政策和干预措施对于减轻不断升级的痛风负担和改善受影响个体的生活质量至关重要。本研究依赖于GBD的二手数据,这些数据在数据收集和报告方面可能存在偏差。此外,各地区诊断方法和医疗服务可及性的差异可能影响所报告趋势的准确性。未来的研究应通过纳入原始数据并探索导致痛风患病率和发病率的地区特定因素来解决这些局限性。