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在一个模拟的中国特大城市中控制新发呼吸道传染病爆发的策略。

The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity.

作者信息

Lei Zhiqun, Shi Ziwei, Huang Jiao, Yan Xiaolong, Luo Jiayao, Xu Meng, Wang Qiuyue, Wang Rui, Wang Qi, Cheng Qu, Wei Sheng

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.

Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Dec 24;11(1):e41383. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e41383. eCollection 2025 Jan 15.


DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e41383
PMID:39866484
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11761331/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES: The emergence of respiratory infectious diseases (ERID) poses a significant threat to global public health. However, effectively managing ERID outbreaks in large cities remains a challenge. METHODS: An age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model was developed to predict the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in controlling ERID outbreaks. Four ERID outbreak scenarios were created based on varying levels of infectivity and pathogenicity. Based on the World Health Organization's (WHO) categorization for responding to the influenza pandemic, the combinations of NPIs were classified into five levels: base, any, moderate, high, and extraordinary levels (from mild to severe). The simulated progression of ERID outbreaks in a megacity were compared across different levels of NPI. RESULTS: Our findings indicate that the response strategies should be formulated based on the epidemiological characteristics of ERID. In the low transmission scenarios, the mandatory NPIs were unnecessary to control ERID outbreaks regardless of their pathogenicity. However, even with low pathogenicity, severe NPIs are required to control the spread of ERID and minimize harm to the public in high transmission scenarios. CONCLUSION: The NPIs for the EIRD outbreak in a city should be tailored to the epidemiological characteristics to control its impact and protect public health.

摘要

目的:呼吸道传染病的出现对全球公共卫生构成重大威胁。然而,有效管理大城市中的呼吸道传染病疫情仍是一项挑战。 方法:建立了一个年龄结构的易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR)模型,以预测非药物干预措施(NPIs)在控制呼吸道传染病疫情方面的有效性。基于不同的传染性和致病性水平创建了四种呼吸道传染病疫情情景。根据世界卫生组织(WHO)应对流感大流行的分类,将非药物干预措施的组合分为五个级别:基础、任意、中等、高级和特别级别(从轻度到重度)。比较了不同非药物干预措施级别下大城市中呼吸道传染病疫情的模拟进展情况。 结果:我们的研究结果表明,应根据呼吸道传染病的流行病学特征制定应对策略。在低传播情景下,无论其致病性如何,强制性非药物干预措施对于控制呼吸道传染病疫情并非必要。然而,即使致病性较低,在高传播情景下也需要严格的非药物干预措施来控制呼吸道传染病的传播并将对公众的危害降至最低。 结论:城市中呼吸道传染病疫情的非药物干预措施应根据流行病学特征进行调整,以控制其影响并保护公众健康。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6ea9/11761331/2ae63e3dd081/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6ea9/11761331/95c6980772db/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6ea9/11761331/2ae63e3dd081/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6ea9/11761331/95c6980772db/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6ea9/11761331/2ae63e3dd081/gr2.jpg

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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States.

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[8]
Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.

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[9]
The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries.

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[10]
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