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优化航运网络对气候脆弱性的适应能力。

Optimising the resilience of shipping networks to climate vulnerability.

作者信息

Poo Mark Ching-Pong, Yang Zaili

机构信息

Liverpool Logistics, Offshore and Marine Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.

出版信息

Marit Policy Manag. 2022 Jul 6;51(1):15-34. doi: 10.1080/03088839.2022.2094488. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Climate extremes are threatening transportation infrastructures and hence require new methods to address their vulnerability and improve their resilience. However, existing studies have yet to examine the climate impacts on transportation networks systematically rather than independently assessing the infrastructures at a component level. Therefore, it is crucial to configure alternative shipping routes from a systematic perspective to reduce climate vulnerabilities and optimise the resilience of the whole shipping network. This paper aims to assess the global shipping network focusing on climate resilience by a methodology that combines climate risk indicators, centrality analysis and ship routing optimisation. The methodology is designed for overviewing the climate vulnerability of the current and future scenarios for comparison. First, a multi-centrality assessment defines the global shipping hubs and network vulnerabilities. Secondly, a shipping model is built for finding the optimal shipping route between ports, considering the port disruption days caused by climate change (e.g. extreme weather) based on the climate vulnerability analysis result from the first step. It contributes to a new framework combining the global and local seaport climate vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it recommends changing shipping routes by a foreseeable increase in port disruptions caused by extreme weather for climate adaptation.

摘要

极端气候正威胁着交通基础设施,因此需要新的方法来应对其脆弱性并提高其恢复力。然而,现有研究尚未系统地考察气候对交通网络的影响,而是在组件层面独立评估基础设施。因此,从系统的角度配置替代航线以降低气候脆弱性并优化整个航运网络的恢复力至关重要。本文旨在通过结合气候风险指标、中心性分析和船舶航线优化的方法,评估以气候恢复力为重点的全球航运网络。该方法旨在概述当前和未来情景的气候脆弱性以便进行比较。首先,多中心性评估确定全球航运枢纽和网络脆弱性。其次,基于第一步的气候脆弱性分析结果,考虑气候变化(如极端天气)导致的港口中断天数,建立一个航运模型以找到港口之间的最佳航线。它有助于形成一个结合全球和本地海港气候脆弱性的新框架。此外,它建议因极端天气导致的港口中断可预见地增加时改变航线以适应气候。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8819/11771466/607da827e799/TMPM_A_2094488_F0001_OC.jpg

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