Tan Zongbiao, Meng Yang, Wu Yanrui, Zhen Junhai, He Haodong, Pu Yu, Zhang Jixiang, Dong Weiguo
Department of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, 238 Jiefang Road, Wuhan, 430060, China.
State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Guangzhou, 510060, China.
NPJ Precis Oncol. 2025 Jan 30;9(1):32. doi: 10.1038/s41698-025-00820-0.
In the context of the global increase in early-onset tumours, investigating the global disease burden caused by early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) is imperative. Data on the burden of EOPC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. A joinpoint regression model was used to analyse the temporal trend of the EOPC burden, and an age‒period‒cohort (APC) model was used to analyse the influence of age, period, and birth cohort on burden trends. Globally, the number of EOPC cases increased from 24,480 to 42,254, and the number of deaths increased from 17,193 to 26,996 between 1990 and 2021. The results of the APC model showed that the burden of EOPC increases with increasing age, whereas the variations in period and cohort effects exhibited a complex pattern across different sociodemographic index regions. Consequently, the disease burden of EOPC is increasing worldwide, highlighting the need for effective interventions.
在全球早发性肿瘤增加的背景下，调查早发性胰腺癌（EOPC）造成的全球疾病负担势在必行。EOPC负担的数据来自《2021年全球疾病负担研究》。采用连接点回归模型分析EOPC负担的时间趋势，并采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对负担趋势的影响。在全球范围内，1990年至2021年间，EOPC病例数从24480例增加到42254例，死亡人数从17193例增加到26996例。APC模型的结果表明，EOPC的负担随着年龄的增长而增加，而时期和队列效应的变化在不同社会人口指数区域呈现出复杂的模式。因此，EOPC的疾病负担在全球范围内正在增加，这凸显了有效干预措施的必要性。
