Alemu Wagaye, Ademassu Mebirat, Belayneh Firehiwot, Gebeyehu Yabibal, Zenebe Getachew Assefa, Lerango Temesgen Leka
School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia.
Department of Midwifery, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia.
Front Pediatr. 2025 Jan 17;12:1447363. doi: 10.3389/fped.2024.1447363. eCollection 2024.
Pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections are the leading causes of death worldwide. Accurate diagnosis, identification of complications and underlying conditions, and appropriate treatment are essential for preventing pneumonia-related morbidity and mortality. Children in developing countries, such as Ethiopia, are at risk of contracting pneumonia, which could lead to death if not treated correctly. Therefore, we sought to assess the predictors and time to management outcomes among pediatric patients hospitalized with pneumonia in the Gedeo Zone, southern Ethiopia.
A multicenter, institution-based prospective follow-up study was conducted among 484 pediatric patients hospitalized with pneumonia in the Gedeo Zone, southern Ethiopia. The data were entered into EpiInfo version 7 and exported to STATA version 15 for analysis. Survival analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model was performed to identify predictors of poor management outcomes. Associations between predictors and poor management outcomes were estimated using a -value <0.05 and adjusted hazards ratios (AHR) with 95% CIs.
Among the 484 patients admitted with pneumonia, 381 (78.7%) recovered, 16 (3.3%) died, 6 (1.2%) were transferred out, and 81 (16.7%), defaulted. Over the study period, the incidence rate of poor management outcomes was 4 per 100 person-days of observation, while the incidence rate of recovery was 15 per 100 person-days of observation. According to the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the factors significantly associated with poor management outcomes were comorbidities at admission (AHR = 2.27, 95% CI: 1.01-5.26), age (AHR = 5.96, 95% CI: 2.71-13.1), nutritional status (AHR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.08-3.17), and residence (AHR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.05-2.34).
The incidence rate of poor management outcomes was 4 per 100 person-days of observation. Comorbidities at admission, age, nutritional status, and place of residence were statistically significant predictors of poor management outcomes.
肺炎及其他下呼吸道感染是全球主要死因。准确诊断、识别并发症及潜在病症并进行恰当治疗对于预防肺炎相关的发病和死亡至关重要。在埃塞俄比亚等发展中国家，儿童有感染肺炎的风险，若治疗不当可能导致死亡。因此，我们试图评估埃塞俄比亚南部盖德奥地区因肺炎住院的儿科患者管理结果的预测因素及时间。
在埃塞俄比亚南部盖德奥地区对484例因肺炎住院的儿科患者进行了一项多中心、基于机构的前瞻性随访研究。数据录入EpiInfo 7版本，并导出到STATA 15版本进行分析。使用Cox比例风险模型进行生存分析以确定管理结果不佳的预测因素。预测因素与管理结果不佳之间的关联采用P值<0.05及95%置信区间的调整风险比（AHR）进行估计。
在484例肺炎入院患者中，381例（78.7%）康复，16例（3.3%）死亡，6例（1.2%）转出，81例（16.7%）失访。在研究期间，管理结果不佳的发生率为每100人日观察期4例，而康复的发生率为每100人日观察期15例。根据多变量Cox回归分析，与管理结果不佳显著相关的因素为入院时的合并症（AHR = 2.27，95% CI：1.01 - 5.26）、年龄（AHR = 5.96，95% CI：2.71 - 13.1）、营养状况（AHR = 1.54，95% CI：1.08 - 3.17）及居住地（AHR = 1.58，95% CI：1.05 - 2.34）。
管理结果不佳的发生率为每100人日观察期4例。入院时的合并症、年龄、营养状况及居住地是管理结果不佳的统计学显著预测因素。
