Bebchuk Tatiana, Moir Andy K, Arosio Tito, Kirdyanov Alexander V, Torbenson Max C A, Krusic Paul J, Hindson Toby R, Howard Heidi, Buchwal Agata, Norman Charles A P, Büntgen Ulf
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN UK.
Institute for the Environment, Brunel University, London, WC1H 0DG UK.
Clim Dyn. 2025;63(2):108. doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2. Epub 2025 Jan 30.
Heatwaves and summer droughts across Europe are likely to intensify under anthropogenic global warming thereby affecting ecological and societal systems. To place modern trends and extremes in the context of past natural variability, annually resolved and absolutely dated climate reconstructions are needed. Here, we present a network of 153 yew ( L.) tree-ring width (TRW) series from 22 sites in southern England that cover the past 310 years. Significant positive correlations were found between TRW chronologies and both April-July precipitation totals (r > 0.7) and July drought indices (r > 0.59) back to 1901 CE ( < 0.05). We used a suite of residual and standard TRW chronologies to reconstruct interannual to multi-decadal spring-summer precipitation and mid-summer drought variability over western Europe, respectively. Our yew hydroclimate reconstructions capture the majority of reported summer droughts and pluvials back to 1710 CE. Clusters of severe drought spells occurred in the second half of the 18th and mid-twentieth century. Our study suggests that the frequency and intensity of recent hydroclimate extremes over western Europe are likely still within the range of past natural variability.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2.
在人为全球变暖的影响下，欧洲各地的热浪和夏季干旱可能会加剧，从而影响生态和社会系统。为了将现代趋势和极端情况置于过去自然变化的背景下，需要每年解析且绝对定年的气候重建。在此，我们展示了一个由来自英格兰南部22个地点的153个紫杉（Taxus baccata L.）树轮宽度（TRW）序列组成的网络，这些序列涵盖了过去310年。在公元1901年之后（p < 0.05），发现TRW年表与4月至7月总降水量（r > 0.7）和7月干旱指数（r > 0.59）之间存在显著正相关。我们分别使用了一组残差和标准TRW年表来重建西欧年际到年代际的春夏降水和仲夏干旱变化。我们的紫杉水文气候重建捕捉到了公元1710年以来大部分已报道的夏季干旱和多雨期。严重干旱期集群出现在18世纪后半叶和20世纪中叶。我们的研究表明，西欧近期水文气候极端事件的频率和强度可能仍在过去自然变化的范围内。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2获取的补充材料。
