Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany.
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic.
Nature. 2024 Jul;631(8019):94-97. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y. Epub 2024 May 14.
Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere summer, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record. However, contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is challenging because the sparse meteorological records from the nineteenth century tend to overestimate temperatures. Here we combine observed and reconstructed June-August surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical summer over the past 2,000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than 0.5 °C. Comparison of the 2023 June-August warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in CE 536 shows a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93 °C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse-gases-induced warming trend that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.
包括异常温暖的北半球夏季在内,2023 年被报告为有记录以来最热的一年。然而,将最近的人为变暖与过去的自然可变性联系起来具有挑战性,因为 19 世纪气象记录稀少往往会高估温度。在这里,我们结合观测和重建的 6 月至 8 月地表气温,表明 2023 年是过去 2000 年来最温暖的北半球非热带夏季,超过了自然气候变率 95%置信范围的 0.5°C 以上。将 2023 年 6 月至 8 月的变暖与公元 536 年最冷的重建夏季进行比较,表明前人类到 2023 年的最大温度范围为 3.93°C。尽管 2023 年与温室气体引起的变暖趋势一致,该趋势因厄尔尼诺事件的展开而加剧,但这种极端情况强调了实施国际减少碳排放协议的紧迫性。