Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022.

OBJECTIVE

There is a growing correlation between the rise in infectious diseases and climate change; however, little is known about the interactions and mixed effects of climate factors on infectious diseases.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study spanning 108 consecutive months from 2014 to 2022 in Can Tho, Vietnam to identify common infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis, HIV, and COVID-19) and their associations with climate change and determine which common diseases presented concurrently with the COVID-19 period using multivariate linear regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis.

RESULT

The five infectious diseases with the highest average incidence rates per 100,000 people were diarrhea; hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); dengue fever; viral hepatitis; and influenza. Positive associations with humidity were observed for dengue fever and HFMD. Temperature was positively associated with malaria. Negative associations were found between humidity and both chickenpox and tetanus. Diarrhea (AUC = 0.79; 95 % CL = 0.70-0.87) and dengue fever (AUC = 0.74; 95 % CL = 0.62-0.83) emerged as the most influential diseases both before and during the COVID-19 period. In our BKMR analysis, we found a significant association between the combined influence of temperature and humidity and the occurrence of dengue fever and HFMD, especially when all climate factors were at or above their 60th percentile relative to their values at the 50th percentile. Temperature emerged as the primary driver associated with the occurrence of infectious diseases.

CONCLUSION

These findings underscore the importance of implementing robust surveillance, prevention, and control measures by public health authorities in Can Tho. Initiatives like vaccination campaigns, vector control programs, public education on hygiene practices, and strengthening healthcare infrastructure are crucial for mitigating the spread of infectious diseases and safeguarding public health in the region.