LACy, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (UMR 8105 CNRS, Université de La Réunion, Météo-France), Saint-Denis de La Réunion, France.
CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jun 1;875:162484. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162484. Epub 2023 Mar 6.
The recent expansion of Aedes albopictus across continents in both tropical and temperate regions and the exponential growth of dengue cases over the past 50 years represent a significant risk to human health. Although climate change is not the only factor responsible for the increase and spread of dengue cases worldwide, it might increase the risk of disease transmission at global and regional scale. Here we show that regional and local variations in climate can induce differential impacts on the abundance of Ae. albopictus. We use the instructive example of Réunion Island with its varied climatic and environmental conditions and benefiting from the availability of meteorological, climatic, entomological and epidemiological data. Temperature and precipitation data based on regional climate model simulations (3 km × 3 km) are used as inputs to a mosquito population model for three different climate emission scenarios. Our objective is to study the impact of climate change on the life cycle dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the 2070-2100 time horizon. Our results show the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on Ae. albopictus abundance as a function of elevation and geographical subregion. At low-elevations areas, decreasing precipitation is expected to have a negative impact on environmental carrying capacity and, consequently, on Ae. albopictus abundance. At mid- and high-elevations, decreasing precipitation is expected to be counterbalanced by a significant warming, leading to faster development rates at all life stages, and consequently increasing the abundance of this important dengue vector in 2070-2100.
近年来，白纹伊蚊在各大洲的热带和温带地区迅速扩散，过去 50 年来登革热病例呈指数级增长，这对人类健康构成了重大威胁。虽然气候变化并不是导致全球登革热病例增加和传播的唯一因素，但它可能会增加疾病在全球和地区范围内传播的风险。在这里，我们表明气候的区域和局部变化会对白纹伊蚊的丰度产生不同的影响。我们以留尼汪岛为例，该岛气候和环境条件多样，并且得益于气象、气候、昆虫学和流行病学数据的可用性。我们将基于区域气候模型模拟（3 公里×3 公里）的温度和降水数据用作三种不同气候排放情景下蚊虫种群模型的输入。我们的目标是研究气候变化对 2070-2100 年期间白纹伊蚊生命周期动态的影响。我们的结果表明，温度和降水的共同影响会随着海拔和地理次区域的不同而对白纹伊蚊的丰度产生影响。在低海拔地区，预计降水减少将对环境承载能力产生负面影响，从而导致白纹伊蚊数量减少。在中海拔和高海拔地区，预计降水减少将被显著变暖所抵消，这将导致所有生命阶段的发育速度加快，从而在 2070-2100 年间增加这种重要的登革热传播媒介的数量。
