Paesano Nahuel, Catalá Violeta, Tcholakian Larisa, Alomar Xavier, Barranco Miguel Ángel, Hernández-Mancera Jonathan, Miró Berta, Trilla Enrique, Morote Juan
Department of Surgery, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain.
Clínica Creu Blanca, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
Cancers (Basel). 2025 Jan 31;17(3):473. doi: 10.3390/cancers17030473.
Validation of predictive models (PMs) is crucial to be implemented in new populations or when advances in diagnostic approaches occurred. The aim of this study is to validate the BCN-MRI PM for sPCa when a highly effective prostate biopsy protocol is used. A prospective cohort of 457 men suspected of having PCa, for whom MRI results were reported with the Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) v 2.1, underwent a per 0.5 mm-core mapping targeted biopsy of suspicious lesions and perilesional areas, followed by a 12-core-systematic biopsy. These procedures took place between 1 February 2022, and 29 February 2024, at a reference center for prostate biopsy. The individual likelihood of sPCa was assessed through the BCN-MRI risk calculator. The overall sPCa detection rate was 58.3%. The calibration curve of the BCN-MRI PM showed an appropriate accuracy between expected and observed probabilities with a discrimination ability for sPCa yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.862 (95% CI 0.828-0.896) comparable to the AUC of 0.858 (95% CI 0.833-0.883) observed in the development cohort. The application of the BCN-MRI PM provided a net benefit over performing biopsies on all men, avoiding 24.9% of prostate biopsies at 95% sensitivity for sPCa, compared to the 23.7% reduction observed in the development cohort. We conclude that the BCN-MRI PM is ready to be implemented when this biopsy protocol is employed.
预测模型(PMs)的验证对于在新人群中实施或当诊断方法取得进展时至关重要。本研究的目的是在使用高效前列腺活检方案时,验证用于筛查前列腺癌(sPCa)的BCN-MRI预测模型。对457名疑似患有前列腺癌的男性进行了前瞻性队列研究,这些男性的MRI结果采用前列腺影像报告和数据系统(PI-RADS)v 2.1报告,对可疑病变和病变周围区域进行了每0.5毫米核心的靶向活检,随后进行了12针系统活检。这些操作于2022年2月1日至2024年2月29日在一家前列腺活检参考中心进行。通过BCN-MRI风险计算器评估sPCa的个体可能性。总体sPCa检出率为58.3%。BCN-MRI预测模型的校准曲线显示预期概率和观察概率之间具有适当的准确性,对sPCa的鉴别能力产生曲线下面积(AUC)为0.862(95%CI 0.828-0.896),与在开发队列中观察到的AUC为0.858(95%CI 0.833-0.883)相当。与在开发队列中观察到的减少23.7%相比,应用BCN-MRI预测模型在对所有男性进行活检方面提供了净益处,在95%的sPCa敏感性下避免了24.9%的前列腺活检。我们得出结论,当采用这种活检方案时,BCN-MRI预测模型已准备好实施。