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基于不成熟假设发表初步结果的危害——重温塞麦尔维斯的磨难

The disservice of publishing preliminary results based on a premature hypothesis - Semmelweis' ordeal revisited.

作者信息

Lynøe Niels, Juth Niklas, Eriksson Anders

机构信息

Centre for Healthcare Ethics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Centre for Research Ethics and Bioethics, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

出版信息

Med Health Care Philos. 2025 Jun;28(2):261-273. doi: 10.1007/s11019-025-10257-8. Epub 2025 Feb 13.

Abstract

In an interesting article, Dr Zuzana Parusniková claimed: (i) that Semmelweis' colleagues did not recognise the importance of his animal experiments, (ii) that the resistance to Semmelweis' hypothesis and results was due mainly to applying mono-causality and (iii) Semmelweis inability to communicate, (iv) that the New Vienna Medical School applied evidence-based medicine, and (v) that the philosophy of Karl Popper is the best interpretation of Semmelweis' scientific approach. Here, we present some factual aspects of Semmelweis' text from 1861 and discuss Dr Parusniková's claims against this backdrop. We conclude that Semmelweis might intentionally have abstained from communicating his hypothesis and results between 1847 and 1849 - including the results from his animal experiments - as he thought that they would eventually be understood and accepted. Semmelweis' hypothesis was that cadaveric matters and decaying particles were the cause of childbed fever and increased maternal mortality. This hypothesis might have been controversial, but we claim that the major reason for the resistance was eminence-based and induced by the publication of preliminary and suboptimal results, based on a premature version of his hypothesis. If the New Vienna Medical School had been influenced by evidence-based medicine, we believe that Semmelweis' empirical results would have been accepted - as they were based on an almost randomised controlled trial - and if the results had not been associated with his hypothesis but instead had focused on a black box procedure. We agree that the philosophy of Popper might be appropriate when analysing Semmelweis' scientific approach when abandoning low-level theories. However, to understand the resistance against Semmelweis' hypothesis and results, it is not sufficient to refer to a Pickwickian discussion; a Kuhnian framework is more adequate.

摘要

在一篇有趣的文章中,祖扎娜·帕鲁斯尼科娃博士声称:(i)塞麦尔维斯的同事没有认识到他的动物实验的重要性;(ii)对塞麦尔维斯的假设和结果的抵制主要是由于采用了单一因果关系;(iii)塞麦尔维斯缺乏沟通能力;(iv)新维也纳医学院采用了循证医学;(v)卡尔·波普尔的哲学是对塞麦尔维斯科学方法的最佳诠释。在此,我们呈现1861年塞麦尔维斯文本中的一些事实,并在此背景下讨论帕鲁斯尼科娃博士的说法。我们得出结论,塞麦尔维斯在1847年至1849年期间可能故意没有传达他的假设和结果——包括他动物实验的结果——因为他认为这些最终会被理解和接受。塞麦尔维斯的假设是,尸体物质和腐烂颗粒是产褥热和孕产妇死亡率上升的原因。这个假设可能存在争议,但我们认为抵制的主要原因是基于权威的,并且是由基于他假设的一个不成熟版本所发表的初步且不完美的结果所引发的。如果新维也纳医学院受到循证医学的影响,我们相信塞麦尔维斯的实证结果会被接受——因为它们基于一项几乎是随机对照试验——并且如果结果没有与他的假设相关联,而是专注于一个黑箱程序。我们同意,在分析塞麦尔维斯放弃低层次理论的科学方法时,波普尔的哲学可能是合适的。然而,要理解对塞麦尔维斯假设和结果的抵制,仅仅进行一场拘泥于字面意义的讨论是不够的;一个库恩式的框架更为恰当。

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本文引用的文献

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Popperian methodology and the Semmelweis case.波普尔方法论与塞麦尔维斯案。
Med Health Care Philos. 2023 Dec;26(4):529-537. doi: 10.1007/s11019-023-10167-7. Epub 2023 Aug 16.
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Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time?科学是在一次次葬礼后才取得进步的吗?
Am Econ Rev. 2019 Aug;109(8):2889-2920. doi: 10.1257/aer.20161574.
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Rediscovering Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (1818-1865).重新发现伊格纳兹·菲利普·塞麦尔维斯(1818-1865)。
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2019 Jan;220(1):26-39. doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2018.11.1084. Epub 2018 Nov 13.

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