Idalsoaga Francisco, Díaz Luis Antonio, Guizzetti Leonardo, Dunn Winston, Mehta Heer, Arnold Jorge, Ayares Gustavo, Mortuza Rokhsana, Mahli Gurpreet, Islam Alvi H, Sarin Shiv K, Maiwall Rakhi, Zhang Wei, Qian Steve, Simonetto Douglas, Singal Ashwani K, Elfeki Mohamed A, Ramirez-Cadiz Carolina, Cabezas Joaquín, Echavarría Victor, Cots Meritxell Ventura, La Tijera María Fátima Higuera-De, Abraldes Juan G, Al-Karaghouli Mustafa, Jalal Prasun K, Ali Ibrahim Mohamad, García-Tsao Guadalupe, Goyes Daniela, Skladaný Lubomir, Havaj Daniel J, Sulejova Karolina, Selcanova Svetlana Adamcova, Rincón Diego, Shah Vijay H, Kamath Patrick S, Arrese Marco, Bataller Ramon, Arab Juan Pablo
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Western University & London Health Sciences Centre, London, Canada.
Departamento de Gastroenterología, Escuela de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Aliment Pharmacol Ther. 2025 Apr;61(8):1391-1395. doi: 10.1111/apt.70024. Epub 2025 Feb 18.
Several dynamic models predict mortality and corticosteroid response in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), yet no consensus exists on the most effective model. This study aimed to assess predictive models for corticosteroid response and short-term mortality in severe AH within a global cohort. We conducted a multi-national study of patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids for at least 7 days, enrolled between 2009 and 2019. Dynamic models-Lille-4, Lille-7, trajectory of serum bilirubin (TSB), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)-were used to estimate 30- and 90-day mortality. Lille-7 demonstrated the highest accuracy for both 30- and 90-day mortality.
有几种动态模型可预测酒精性肝炎（AH）的死亡率和皮质类固醇反应，但对于最有效的模型尚无共识。本研究旨在评估全球队列中重症AH患者皮质类固醇反应和短期死亡率的预测模型。我们对2009年至2019年期间接受皮质类固醇治疗至少7天的重症AH患者进行了一项多国研究。使用动态模型——里尔-4、里尔-7、血清胆红素轨迹（TSB）和中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值（NLR）——来估计30天和90天死亡率。里尔-7在30天和90天死亡率预测方面均显示出最高的准确性。
