Burden of neurological diseases in Asia, from 1990 to 2021 and its predicted level to 2045: a Global Burden of Disease study.

INTRODUCTION

Neurological diseases are a significant contributor to premature mortality and temporary or long-term disability among survivors. Asia serves as an essential region for assessing the shifting burden of these disorders. This study aims to calculate and evaluate the changes in burden of neurological diseases across Asia.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease database provided data on deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence from 1990 to 2021 across Asian subregions and countries. Twelve common neurological diseases were analyzed. Estimated Annual Percent Change were calculated to reveal trends in all the metrics. The Nordpred age-period-cohort model was employed to project the neurological disease burden.

RESULTS

In 2021, the leading neurological disorders in DALYs were stroke (109,144.87, 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 95,992.89-123,089.90), headache disorders (25,713.91, 95%UI 4,693.65-54,853.47), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (19,156.46, 95% UI 9,137.72-41,421.18). Stroke and degenerative neurological disorder presented the most severe burden in East Asia, while headache disorders were prominent in South Asia. Between 1990 and 2021, Asia's regions showed varying reductions in age-standardized DALYs and age-standardized death rates for neurological diseases, with the steepest decline observed in high-income Asia Pacific (DALYs -2.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.4 to -2.13; ASDR -3.85, 95% CI -4.02 to -3.69). Neurological disease burden was higher in males, peaking at ages 65-74. Projections to 2045 indicate a decline in DALYs for stroke, infectious neurological diseases, Parkinson's disease, and idiopathic epilepsy across most regions of Asia. In contrast, trends for other neurological diseases will vary regionally.

CONCLUSION

Neurological diseases were the primary cause of DALYs in 2021, ranking second only to cardiovascular diseases as a leading cause of death. As the aging trend in Asia's population continues to intensify, it is crucial to focus more on the prevention and management of neurological disorders.