Esse B, Burton M, Hayer C, La Spina G, Pardo Cofrades A, Asensio-Ramos M, Barrancos J, Pérez N
Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia, Catania, Italy.
Bull Volcanol. 2025;87(3):20. doi: 10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6. Epub 2025 Feb 26.
As global populations grow, the exposure of communities and infrastructure to volcanic hazards increases every year. Once a volcanic eruption begins, it becomes critical for risk managers to understand the likely evolution and duration of the activity to assess its impact on populations and infrastructure. Here, we report an exponential decay in satellite-derived SO emission rates during the 2021 eruption of Tajogaite, La Palma, Canary Islands, and show that this pattern allows a reliable and consistent forecast of the evolution of the SO emissions after the first third of the total eruption duration. The eruption ended when fluxes dropped to less than 6% of their fitted maximum value, providing a useful benchmark to compare with other eruptions. Using a 1-D numerical magma ascent model, we suggest that the exponentially decreasing SO emission trend was primarily produced by reducing magma chamber pressure as the eruption emptied the feeding reservoir. This work highlights the key role that satellite-derived SO emission data can play in forecasting the evolution of volcanic eruptions and how the use of magma ascent models can inform the driving mechanisms controlling the evolution of the eruption.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6.
随着全球人口增长，社区和基础设施每年遭受火山灾害的风险也在增加。火山喷发一旦开始，风险管理者了解活动可能的演变过程和持续时间以评估其对人口和基础设施的影响就变得至关重要。在此，我们报告了2021年加那利群岛拉帕尔马岛塔约加伊特火山喷发期间卫星反演的二氧化硫排放率呈指数衰减，并表明这种模式能够对总喷发持续时间的前三分之一之后的二氧化硫排放演变进行可靠且一致的预测。当通量降至拟合最大值的6%以下时，喷发结束，这为与其他喷发进行比较提供了一个有用的基准。使用一维数值岩浆上升模型，我们认为二氧化硫排放呈指数下降趋势主要是由于喷发排空补给岩浆库导致岩浆房压力降低所致。这项工作突出了卫星反演的二氧化硫排放数据在预测火山喷发演变中可以发挥的关键作用，以及岩浆上升模型的使用如何有助于了解控制喷发演变的驱动机制。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6获取的补充材料。
