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对具有定性结果的不确定性下的决策进行建模。

Modeling decision-making under uncertainty with qualitative outcomes.

作者信息

Korem Nachshon, Duek Or, Jia Ruonan, Wertheimer Emily, Metviner Sierra, Grubb Michael, Levy Ifat

机构信息

Department of Psychiatry, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.

Department of Comparative Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS Comput Biol. 2025 Mar 3;21(3):e1012440. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012440. eCollection 2025 Mar.

Abstract

Modeling decision-making under uncertainty typically relies on quantitative outcomes. Many decisions, however, are qualitative in nature, posing problems for traditional models. Here, we aimed to model uncertainty attitudes in decisions with qualitative outcomes. Participants made choices between certain outcomes and the chance for more favorable outcomes in quantitative (monetary) and qualitative (medical) modalities. Using computational modeling, we estimated the values participants assigned to qualitative outcomes and compared uncertainty attitudes across domains. Our model provided a good fit for the data, including quantitative estimates for qualitative outcomes. The model outperformed a utility function in quantitative decisions. Additionally, we found an association between ambiguity attitudes across domains. Results were replicated in an independent sample. We demonstrate the ability to extract quantitative measures from qualitative outcomes, leading to better estimation of subjective values. This allows for the characterization of individual behavior traits under a wide range of conditions.

摘要

在不确定性下进行决策建模通常依赖于定量结果。然而,许多决策本质上是定性的,这给传统模型带来了问题。在这里,我们旨在对具有定性结果的决策中的不确定性态度进行建模。参与者在定量(货币)和定性(医学)模式下的确定结果与获得更有利结果的机会之间做出选择。使用计算建模,我们估计了参与者赋予定性结果的值,并比较了不同领域的不确定性态度。我们的模型对数据拟合良好,包括对定性结果的定量估计。该模型在定量决策中优于效用函数。此外,我们发现不同领域的模糊态度之间存在关联。结果在一个独立样本中得到了重复。我们展示了从定性结果中提取定量测量的能力,从而更好地估计主观价值。这使得在广泛条件下能够刻画个体行为特征。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0818/11918403/9ccccc07b3c1/pcbi.1012440.g001.jpg

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