Jihan Md Akik Tanjil, Popy Shamsunnahar, Kayes Shafiul, Rasul Golam, Maowa Al Shafi, Rahman Md Mustafijur
Department of Environmental Science and Disaster Management, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj, 8100, Bangladesh.
Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies, Dhaka University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 6;15(1):7856. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81250-z.
During the last two decade, Bangladesh has been experienced a critical climatic anomalies which lead to an increment in enormity and repeat of diverse climate relate extraordinary events. Climate analysts substantiate that around the world temperature and precipitation plan is expected to change, which may result in significant influence on cultivation, work, and organic framework. Bangladesh is subsequently likely to confront critical challenges within the coming decades. In orchestrate to sufficient get it this complex, lively wonders, Analyzing chronicled Climate modify scenarios as well as anticipating its future designs may be a exceptional concern for examiner. This consider focuses to analyzes irrefutable climatic data from (1901-2020), and expect future temperature and precipitation plans in Bangladesh utilizing CMIP6 data. The data utilized in this think-around (Observed data is from CRU TS 4.05 and future data is from CMIP6) have been obtained from WorldClim v2.1. Distinctive techniques tallying relationship, relapse, standard deviation, relationship system, percentiles, cell bits of knowledge, and IDW presentation were performed to analyze the designs, changeability and spatial plans of temperature and precipitation. This think around revealed that Over the irrefutable consider period (1901-2020) Bangladesh has been experienced a vital warming drift with an normal increase in temperature 2 °C and with annually decay of the in general precipitation 607.26 mm adjacent to a move towards drier conditions in show disdain toward of frail relationship with more smoking a long time. Projected climate models talks to that Bangladesh slightest temperature is expected to expand from 1 °C to 4.4 °C as well as most extreme temperatures from 1 °C to 4.1 °C by 2100. In expansion, anticipated precipitation is expected to amplify by 480.38 mm, with the most prominent rises amid storm months. Regional assortments in temperature and precipitation are once more expected, with the Southeast (SE) likely experiencing the first vital warming and the Northeast (NE) seeing the preeminent critical increase in precipitation. In this study highlights the significant impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities in Bangladesh's southwestern coastal region, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies, local knowledge integration, and proactive national and global level policies to address and manage climate-related challenges.
在过去二十年中，孟加拉国经历了严重的气候异常，导致各种与气候相关的极端事件的规模和频率增加。气候分析人士证实，全球气温和降水模式预计将发生变化，这可能对农业、就业和生态系统产生重大影响。因此，孟加拉国在未来几十年可能面临严峻挑战。为了充分理解这一复杂多变的现象，分析历史气候变迁情景并预测其未来模式是研究人员的一项重要任务。本研究旨在分析1901年至2020年确凿的气候数据，并利用CMIP6数据预测孟加拉国未来的气温和降水模式。本研究使用的数据（观测数据来自CRU TS 4.05，未来数据来自CMIP6）均取自WorldClim v2.1。采用了多种技术，包括相关性分析、回归分析、标准差分析、相关系数分析、百分位数分析、像元分析和反距离加权插值法，来分析气温和降水的模式、变异性和空间格局。该研究表明，在1901年至2020年的观测期内，孟加拉国经历了显著的变暖趋势，平均气温上升了2°C，年总降水量减少了607.26毫米，尽管与较暖年份的相关性较弱，但总体上呈现出向更干燥条件转变的趋势。预测的气候模型显示，到2100年，孟加拉国的最低气温预计将从1°C升至4.4°C，最高气温将从1°C升至4.1°C。此外预计降水量将增加480.38毫米，在季风月份增加最为显著。预计气温和降水还会出现区域差异，东南部可能最早经历显著变暖，而东北部降水量增加最为显著。本研究强调了气候变化对孟加拉国西南沿海脆弱社区的重大影响，强调需要有针对性的适应策略、整合当地知识，以及在国家和全球层面采取积极政策，以应对和管理与气候相关的挑战。
