Applying machine learning to predict bowel preparation adequacy in elderly patients for colonoscopy: development and validation of a web-based prediction tool.

BACKGROUND

Adequate bowel preparation is crucial for effective colonoscopy, especially in elderly patients who face a high risk of inadequate preparation. This study develops and validates a machine learning model to predict bowel preparation adequacy in elderly patients before colonoscopy.

METHODS

The study adhered to the TRIPOD AI guidelines. Clinical data from 471 elderly patients collected between February and December 2023 were utilized for developing and internally validating the model, while 221 patients' data from March to June 2024 were used for external validation. The Boruta algorithm was applied for feature selection. Models including logistic regression, light gradient boosting machines, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, random forests, and extreme gradient boosting were evaluated using metrics such as AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The SHAP algorithm helped rank feature importance. A web-based application was developed using the Streamlit framework to enhance clinical usability.

RESULTS

The Boruta algorithm identified 7 key features. The SVM model excelled with an AUC of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.822-0.969), and high accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. In external validation, the SVM model maintained robust performance with an AUC of 0.889. The SHAP algorithm further explained the contribution of each feature to model predictions.

CONCLUSION

The study developed an interpretable and practical machine learning model for predicting bowel preparation adequacy in elderly patients, facilitating early interventions to improve outcomes and reduce resource wastage.