越野自行车道对增加身体活动及减少痴呆症风险中的性别差异的经济影响。
Economic Implications of Off-Road Cycle Lanes to Increase Physical Activity and Reduce Sex and Gender Differences in the Risk of Dementia.
作者信息
Walbaum Magdalena, Aguzzoli Elisa, Castro-Aldrete Laura, Cyhlarova Eva, Chadha Antonella Santuccione, Knapp Martin
机构信息
Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Women's Brain Foundation, Zürich, Switzerland.
出版信息
Int J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2025 Mar;40(3):e70067. doi: 10.1002/gps.70067.
BACKGROUND
Dementia represents one of the greatest global health challenges. There are known risk factors that might prevent or delay nearly 50% of the different types of dementia. There are substantial differences in risk factors and progression of dementia between women and men, including engagement in regular physical activity. The study aimed to quantify the impact of increasing women's participation in physical activity with off-road cycles and its effect on dementia incidence, relative to men and the associated health and social care costs.
METHODS
Our study employed a population model with secondary data analysis approach to investigate the potential economic effect of implementing off-cycle lanes in the UK. Data were drawn from published evidence on lifetime risk of dementia relative to physical activity in men and women for the UK population, levels of physical activity in the UK, evidence on the effectiveness of off-road cycle lanes in increasing the level of physical activity in men and women, lifetime costs of dementia in the UK. Two scenarios were compared, assuming an increase from the baseline levels of cycling of 40.3% and 114% for women and by 36.4% and 77% for men, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for variations in key variables.
RESULTS
Current dementia related lifetime costs were estimated at £1090.1 billion, and total lifetime costs £3326.1 billion. Under Scenario 1, dementia related lifetime costs decreased by £4.7 billion, and total lifetime costs by £0.11 billion. In Scenario 2, dementia related lifetime costs decreased by £7.0 billion, and total lifetime costs by £1.9 billion.
CONCLUSION
Off-road cycle lanes, especially for women, this type of structural and lifestyle intervention has the potential to bring health and economic benefits. Increased physical activity not only provides numerous health benefits, but also contributes to preventing the onset and lifetime costs of dementia.
背景
痴呆症是全球最大的健康挑战之一。已知一些风险因素可预防或延缓近50%的不同类型痴呆症。男性和女性在痴呆症的风险因素和病程方面存在显著差异，包括参与定期体育活动。该研究旨在量化增加女性参与越野骑行对痴呆症发病率的影响及其效果，相对于男性以及相关的健康和社会护理成本。
方法
我们的研究采用了基于人口模型的二次数据分析方法，以调查在英国实施非机动自行车道的潜在经济影响。数据来自已发表的关于英国人群中男性和女性痴呆症终生风险与体育活动的证据、英国的体育活动水平、越野自行车道提高男性和女性体育活动水平有效性的证据、英国痴呆症的终生成本。比较了两种情景，假设女性骑自行车的基线水平分别增加40.3%和114%，男性分别增加36.4%和77%。进行了敏感性分析以考虑关键变量的变化。
结果
当前与痴呆症相关的终生成本估计为10901亿英镑，总终生成本为33261亿英镑。在情景1下，与痴呆症相关的终生成本减少了47亿英镑，总终生成本减少了11亿英镑。在情景2下，与痴呆症相关的终生成本减少了70亿英镑，总终生成本减少了19亿英镑。
结论
越野自行车道，特别是对女性而言，这种结构和生活方式干预有可能带来健康和经济效益。增加体育活动不仅带来诸多健康益处，还有助于预防痴呆症的发病和终生成本。
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