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Leveraging machine learning for enhanced and interpretable risk prediction of venous thromboembolism in acute ischemic stroke care.

作者信息

Jiang Youli, Li Ao, Li Zhihuan, Li Yanfeng, Li Rong, Zhao Qingshi, Li Guisu

机构信息

Department of Neurology, People's Hospital of Longhua, Shenzhen, China.

Clinical Nursing Teaching and Research Section, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Mar 18;20(3):e0302676. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302676. eCollection 2025.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0302676
PMID:40100876
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11918378/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a life-threatening complication commonly occurring after acute ischemic stroke (AIS), with an increased risk of mortality. Traditional risk assessment tools lack precision in predicting VTE in AIS patients due to the omission of stroke-specific factors. METHODS: We developed a machine learning model using clinical data from patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) admitted between December 2021 and December 2023. Predictive models were developed using machine learning algorithms, including Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR). Feature selection involved stepwise logistic regression and LASSO, with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) used to enhance model interpretability. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS: Among the 1,632 AIS patients analyzed, 4.17% developed VTE. The GBM model achieved the highest predictive accuracy with an AUC of 0.923, outperforming other models such as Random Forest and Logistic Regression. The model demonstrated strong sensitivity (90.83%) and specificity (93.83%) in identifying high-risk patients. SHAP analysis revealed that key predictors of VTE risk included elevated D-dimer levels, premorbid mRS, and large vessel occlusion, offering clinicians valuable insights for personalized treatment decisions. CONCLUSION: This study provides an accurate and interpretable method to predict VTE risk in patients with AIS using the GBM model, potentially improving early detection rates and reducing morbidity. Further validation is needed to assess its broader clinical applicability.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/c0f93a660ad0/pone.0302676.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/c305ec750ac6/pone.0302676.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/828207f4812c/pone.0302676.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/4008124f1a33/pone.0302676.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/83fe30fda39e/pone.0302676.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/c0f93a660ad0/pone.0302676.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/c305ec750ac6/pone.0302676.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/828207f4812c/pone.0302676.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/4008124f1a33/pone.0302676.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/83fe30fda39e/pone.0302676.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e48a/11918378/c0f93a660ad0/pone.0302676.g005.jpg

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Leveraging machine learning for enhanced and interpretable risk prediction of venous thromboembolism in acute ischemic stroke care.

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Heparin resistance management during cardiac surgery: a literature review and future directions.

J Extra Corpor Technol. 2024-9

[2]
Comparative efficacy of aspirin versus direct oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis following primary total hip arthroplasty or total knee arthroplasty: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

J Exp Orthop. 2024-9-2

[3]
Machine learning-based prediction model of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis after stroke.

J Thromb Thrombolysis. 2024-10

[4]
Risk of death, thrombotic and hemorrhagic events in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation and systemic autoimmune diseases: an analysis from a global federated dataset.

Clin Res Cardiol. 2024-6

[5]
Predictors and outcomes of deep venous thrombosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke: results from the Chinese Stroke Center Alliance.

Int Angiol. 2023-12

[6]
Pragmatic solutions to reduce the global burden of stroke: a World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission.

Lancet Neurol. 2023-12

[7]
Ten-Year Multicenter Retrospective Study Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Patients at High Risk of Venous Thromboembolism After Radical Gastrectomy.

Int J Gen Med. 2023-5-18

[8]
Nomogram Prediction for Lower Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients Receiving Thrombolytic Therapy.

Clin Appl Thromb Hemost. 2023

[9]
Elastic Net Regularization Paths for All Generalized Linear Models.

J Stat Softw. 2023

[10]
Stroke mortality prediction using machine learning: systematic review.

J Neurol Sci. 2023-1-15

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