Liu Xiao, Sun Honghu, Wang Xiang, Liu Lisha, Guo Ting, Sun Yue, Wang Jun, Bai Li
（ 100021） Key Laboratory of Food Safety Risk Assessment of National Health Commission, China National Centre for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100021, China.
Sichuan Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2025 Jan 20;56(1):239-246. doi: 10.12182/20250160303.
To conduct a quantitative risk assessment of (LM) in prepackaged, non-vacuum sealed, short shelf-life, ready-to-eat meat products in Chengdu using the @Risk software.
Based on monitoring data of LM contamination in pre-packaged, non-vacuum sealed, refrigerated ready-to-eat meat products in Chengdu obtained from a previous study, a risk assessment model was established. The risk of LM infection caused by consuming cooked meat products in different groups of people was quantitatively assessed. In addition, the growth of LM in cooked meat products, from retail to consumption, was also taken into consideration in the assessment.
In Chengdu, the numbers of potential cases of listeriosis caused by consumption of prepackaged, non-vacuum sealed, refrigerated ready-to-eat meat products were 0.01 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0-1.71 × 10) per year per million in healthy individuals aged 5- < 65 years old, 0.22 (95% CI: 0-2.67 × 10) in healthy individuals aged 65 and above, and 2.88 (95% CI: 3.85 × 10-4.35) in pregnant women. According to the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial pollution level of LM in the retail stage was the most important factor affecting the prevalence ( = 0.25), followed by retail temperature ( = 0.08), retail time ( = 0.07), and amount of consumption per meal ( = 0.07).
For pre-packaged, non-vacuum sealed, cooked meat products, the most important measure to reduce the prevalence of listeriosis is to control the initial contamination level, which requires food processing plants to regularly clean and strictly disinfect the processing environment and equipment to minimize LM contamination at the source. Retail delicatessens should strictly maintain a storage temperature below 5.0 ℃ and strictly adhere to product shelf-life recommendations. As for consumers, they should consume these meat products as soon as possible after purchase or store them under refrigerated conditions and shorten the storage time. Pregnant women should thoroughly heat the meat products before eating to reduce the risk of listeriosis.
使用@Risk软件对成都预包装、非真空密封、保质期短的即食肉类产品中的单核细胞增生李斯特菌（LM）进行定量风险评估。
基于先前一项研究获得的成都预包装、非真空密封、冷藏即食肉类产品中LM污染的监测数据，建立风险评估模型。对不同人群食用熟肉制品导致LM感染的风险进行定量评估。此外，评估中还考虑了熟肉制品从零售到消费过程中LM的生长情况。
在成都，5至<65岁健康个体中，每年每百万人口因食用预包装、非真空密封、冷藏即食肉类产品导致的潜在李斯特菌病病例数为0.01（95%置信区间[CI]：0 - 1.71×10），65岁及以上健康个体为0.22（95%CI：0 - 2.67×10），孕妇为2.88（95%CI：3.85×10 - 4.35）。根据敏感性分析结果，零售阶段LM的初始污染水平是影响患病率的最重要因素（=0.25），其次是零售温度（=0.08）、零售时间（=0.07）和每餐食用量（=0.07）。
对于预包装、非真空密封的熟肉制品，降低李斯特菌病患病率的最重要措施是控制初始污染水平，这要求食品加工厂定期清洁并严格消毒加工环境和设备，以从源头上尽量减少LM污染。零售熟食店应严格将储存温度保持在5.0℃以下，并严格遵守产品保质期建议。对于消费者而言，应在购买后尽快食用这些肉类产品，或在冷藏条件下储存并缩短储存时间。孕妇在食用前应将肉类产品彻底加热，以降低感染李斯特菌病的风险。
