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1990年至2019年期间流感相关下呼吸道感染死亡的全球模式与趋势。

Global patterns and trends in deaths of influenza-associated lower respiratory infections from 1990 to 2019.

作者信息

Chen Can, Chen Dingmo, Du Yuxia, Jiang Daixi, Cao Kexin, Yang Mengya, Wu Xiaoyue, Chen Mengsha, Zhou Wenkai, Qi Jiaxing, You Yue, Yan Rui, Yang Shigui

机构信息

Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.

Shangcheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2025 Mar 24;153:e49. doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001559.

Abstract

This study examined global trends in influenza-associated lower respiratory infections (LRIs) deaths from 1990 to 2019 using data from the GBD 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were used to analyze age-standardized death rates (ASDR). Globally, the ASDR of influenza-associated LRIs was 3.29/100,000 in 2019, which was higher in the African region (6.57/100,000) and among adults aged 70 years and older (29.88/100,000). The ASDR of influenza-associated LRIs decreased significantly from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC = -1.88%, P < 0.05). However, it was significantly increased among adults aged 70 years and older during 2017-2019 (APC = 2.31%, P < 0.05), especially in Western Pacific Region and South-East Asia Regions. The ratio of death rates between adults aged 70 years and older and children aged under 5 years increased globally from 1.63 in 1990 to 5.34 in 2019, and the Western Pacific Region experienced the most substantial increase, with the ratio soaring from 1.83 in 1990 to 12.98 in 2019. Despite a decline in the global ASDR of influenza-associated LRIs, it continues to impose a significant burden, particularly in the African, Western Pacific regions and among the elderly population.

摘要

本研究利用全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2019的数据,调查了1990年至2019年期间流感相关下呼吸道感染(LRI)死亡的全球趋势。采用年度百分比变化(APC)和平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)分析年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)。在全球范围内,2019年流感相关LRI的ASDR为3.29/10万,在非洲地区(6.57/10万)以及70岁及以上成年人中(29.88/10万)更高。1990年至2019年期间,流感相关LRI的ASDR显著下降(AAPC = -1.88%,P < 0.05)。然而,在2017 - 2019年期间,70岁及以上成年人中的ASDR显著上升(APC = 2.31%,P < 0.05),尤其是在西太平洋地区和东南亚地区。全球70岁及以上成年人与5岁以下儿童的死亡率之比从1990年的1.63上升至2019年的5.34,西太平洋地区的增幅最大,该比例从1990年的1.83飙升至2019年的12.98。尽管全球流感相关LRI的ASDR有所下降,但它仍然造成了重大负担,特别是在非洲、西太平洋地区以及老年人群体中。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b99f/11951234/ace327eb5f42/S0950268824001559_fig1.jpg

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